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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.2 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west northwest with a decrease in forward speed are expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the tropical storm force wind radii are expanding and now extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

Larry continues to gradually become better organized this morning, with a small but cold CDO near the estimated center, and well defined curved bands rotating completely around. Unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave passes over the center in the last 6-9 hours. However, I did receive a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 1128 UTC which indicated that while the inner core remains quite small, the 34-kt wind radii have expanded dramatically in all quadrants. The most recent Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both CI 4.0/65 kt from SAB and TAFB. However, the objective intensity estimates from SATCON and ADT are higher, at 70 kt and 77 kt respectively. Thus, the current intensity of Larry was nudged upward to 70 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane's heading has changed little this morning, estimated at 280/15 kt. There also remains little change to the forecast track reasoning. A dominant mid-level ridge is located north of Larry and should maintain the hurricane on a west to west-northwest heading over the next 72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement over this time period. After 72 hours, a bit more track guidance spread begins to take shape, which appears related to the evolution of the the steering ridge orientation. For example, the most recent GFS run begins a more pronounced rightward bend, as the ridge becomes positioned northeast of the tropical cyclone. In contrast, the ECMWF and a number of its left-leaning ensemble members maintain more ridging directly north of Larry, keeping the hurricane on a more leftward track with only a gradual bend to the west-northwest and northwest. These differences notwithstanding, the consensus aids has changed little from the previous forecast cycle, and the NHC forecast track is nearly identical to the previous track. This track lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid, which favors a track solution a bit closer to the ECMWF versus the GFS.

Larry's environmental conditions appear very favorable for additional intensification over the next 60-72 hours. In fact, the primarily forecast challenge relates to how Larry's core structure evolves over the next several days. Right now, the inner-core and hurricane-force wind radii are very small relative to the expanding tropical-storm-force wind field around the storm. Thus, it appears likely that Larry will undergo some form of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) in the next 12 to 24 hours, which may slow down the short term intensification rate. However, once this cycle is complete, very light easterly vertical wind shear between 2-8 kt, abundant mid-level moisture, and sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures between 27-28 C should favor steady to rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 120 kt in roughly 72 hours, which is a faster and slightly higher peak than the prior forecast. Afterwards, the guidance is a bit conflicted. The GFS-based SHIPS continues to suggests low vertical wind shear through the end of the forecast period. However, the ECMWF-based SHIPS shows much higher southwesterly vertical wind shear beginning in 84 hours as Larry also moves into a drier environment. It is also possible additional ERCs may occur in the latter portion of this forecast, resulting in additional intensity fluctuations. For these reasons, the intensity forecast at the end of the period shows some modest weakening. This intensity forecast is a bit higher than the HCCA corrected consensus aid, but remains lower than some of the more aggressive guidance (COAMPS-TC, the experimental HAFS-B).