1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, possibly as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles today, and will spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be possible. Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this week. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). A drifting buoy near the center of Larry recently measured a pressure of 962.9 mb (28.43 inches).

Larry remains a powerful hurricane this morning. The system has a warm, well-defined eye with a large diameter of around 40 n mi. Larry's central dense overcast has become more symmetric overnight, although the upper-level outflow is still somewhat restricted on the southwestern side of the hurricane. This is likely an indication of some vertical wind shear impinging on the cyclone. However, recent AMSR2 microwave data indicate that the vortex is still well-aligned vertically, with a pronounced eyewall that slopes outward with height. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt for this advisory based on consensus T5.5/102 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 105 kt.

The initial motion of Larry is northwestward, or 305/12 kt. Larry is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next several days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. By Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will move off the east coast of the United States later this week. The latest track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus aids. Confidence remains high in Larry's track forecast given the excellent model agreement. The hurricane is still expected to make its closest approach to Bermuda at days 4 and 5, but it remains too early to pinpoint how close it will come to the island. Even if the center passes east of Bermuda as forecast, it could still be large enough to produce some impacts on the island.

Over the next few days, some fluctuations in Larry's intensity are possible. The oceanic heat content along the forecast track is certainly sufficient for some intensification. However, vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level trough/low to the west of Larry may inhibit strengthening at times during the next couple of days, especially if the stronger shear values in the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance are realized. Given Larry's large eye size, it does not appear as if the cyclone is poised to significantly intensify. The official NHC intensity forecast shows slight strengthening in the near-term, but then levels off the intensity through 48 h. The NHC forecast keeps Larry at major hurricane intensity through day 4, as the environment appears favorable enough between 48-96 h for Larry to maintain its organization, even as the cyclone gains latitude. Overall, this forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance, above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and the other multi-model consensus aids.