1. Large swells generated by Larry are already affecting the Lesser Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 51.4 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with very gradual weakening thereafter. Larry is a large and expanding hurricane. Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

A series of afternoon and evening passive microwave imagery indicate that Larry has evolved from an earlier stable eyewall structure to one with concentric eyewalls. The most recent microwave pass, a 2201 UTC SSMIS overpass, showed that Larry is likely in the latter stages of this most recent eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with a new outer eyewall radius of nearly 50 nautical miles. However, geostationary satellite imagery still shows quite a bit of inner eyewall convection and it may take a while longer before this ERC is complete. A recent ASCAT-A pass at 2339 UTC also indicated that Larry's inner-core wind field had expanded further, likely related to this recent ERC. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB remain unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial intensity remains 110 kt this advisory. A NOAA P-3 aircraft will be conducting a research mission into the Larry tomorrow and should provide some helpful in-situ measurements to verify the hurricane's intensity.

Larry's motion to the northwest continues to gradually slow down, with the latest estimated motion at 310/10 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains the same. Larry should maintain its northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days as it remains steered around the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the hurricane's northeast. After 72 hours, Larry will be reaching the western extent of this ridge while an amplifying mid-latitude trough will be approaching from the northeastern United States. The combination of these features should help Larry recurve, first to the north, and then northeast with accelerating forward motion by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and very few changes were made to the track forecast this cycle, staying close to the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

The intensity forecast with Larry is somewhat tricky. Larry's wind field continues to grow, following the multiple ERCs that have occurred over the past few days. At the same time, Larry's forward motion has gradually been slowing down, with the latest estimate down to 10 kts. The combination of Larry's widening wind field with its slower forward motion opens the storm up to possible upwelling of cooler ocean waters near its inner-core. In fact, a drifting buoy that Larry moved over in the past 24 hours showed a significant drop in sea-surface temperatures from 27.5 C to less than 26 C. These in-situ measurements are helpful, because they are lower than the SHIPS-derived sea-surface temperature values and more consistent with the upwelling recently forecast by the HWRF model. Adding to the forecast complexity is the ongoing ERC which could be ending over the next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one for the first 24 hours, showing little change in intensity after ERC completion. Thereafter, while dynamical conditions near Larry are expected to become more favorable (lower vertical wind shear), the anticipated upwelling from Larry's large wind field as the storm moves slowly northwestward is forecast to result in gradual decay. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one after 48 hours, following the latest HCCA consensus aid closely. However, Larry's wind field is also forecast to expand over this time period, making the cyclone a prolific swell and surf producer.