1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 58.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this, along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or 320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through the northeastern United States and become embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes.