1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the northnorthwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined, particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to provide a new intensity estimate.

The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track.

Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days. Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less, the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over the north Atlantic.