1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected there today, along with a risk of coastal flooding.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions are storm surge are possible in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a hurricane watch is in effect. Interests there should monitor updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
- Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however brief heavy rain from these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.

Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 61.6 West. Larry is moving toward the north northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

Larry continues to feature a banding-type eye on satellite images, and the eye is clearly evident on the Bermuda radar. Satellite and radar data also show a moat-like area of low precipitation between the eyewall and a large band of convection farther removed from the center. This outer band is expected to affect Bermuda or the waters just east of the island over the next several hours. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has changed little since yesterday. Flight-level winds from the aircraft were as high as 95 kt, but the peak SFMR-observed surface winds were only 69 kt. This again indicates that in this case the strong winds aloft are not being transported to the surface as effectively as in a typical hurricane at lower latitudes. Blending these data results in an intensity estimate of 80 kt for this advisory. This is just a little higher than the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is gradually turning to the right and the initial motion is 340/14 kt. Larry is currently moving around the western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic, and is passing east of Bermuda. The flow on the east side of a strong mid-level trough moving from the northeastern United States to Atlantic Canada will cause Larry to turn toward the northeast and accelerate in 24 to 48 hours. Larry will move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 36 to 48 hours, and then move over the far north Atlantic around the end of the forecast period. There is very little change to the NHC track forecast from the previous advisory, which remains close to the various consensus model solutions.

Larry is likely remain over warm waters with low shear for another 24 hours or so. Thus the system will probably maintain much of its intensity into Friday. By Friday night and over the weekend, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should cause weakening. However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the hurricane could slow the weakening process. The official intensity forecast keeps Larry at hurricane-force through 48 hours even as it undergoes extratropical transition. In 3-4 days, the global models show Larry merging with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic.