1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
- Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, and tropical storm conditions are starting to spread into the area at this time. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 44.9 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the northnortheast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even faster northnortheast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Canadian buoy 44139 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). Canadian Buoy 44139 recently reported a pressure of 962.1 mb (28.41 inches).

Even though Larry is crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream Current, the hurricane remains well organized and has changed little during the past several hours. Satellite images and radar data indicate that Larry still has an inner core, though the southern side has eroded some. Large curved bands surround the inner core region, with dry slots noted between the core and bands. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt based mostly on the ASCAT data from earlier today, which showed peak winds of around 65 kt to the east of the center. It should be noted that this intensity value is above the Dvorak estimates, which are often not as reliable for high latitude storms like Larry. The earlier ASCAT data confirmed that Larry is a large cyclone with hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 90 n mi and 220 n mi from the center, respectively. Larry is rapidly approaching southeastern Newfoundland, and weather conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate there in a few hours.

The hurricane continues to accelerate to the north-northeast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 020/30 kt. An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or so as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion should take Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is then expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the tightly clustered models.

Larry is expected to maintain its intensity through landfall in Newfoundland tonight. However, a combination of land interaction, much cooler SSTs, and an increase in shear are expected to promote weakening shortly after landfall. Larry should be fully extratropical early Saturday morning when it is forecast to be exiting Newfoundland and moving over the cold waters of the Labrador Sea. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the GFS model, which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to extratropical cyclones.