1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late today into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.

RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and then the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 57.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some slight weakening is expected on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Over the past few hours deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C have developed near and to the east of the center of Peter. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system earlier provided data during several legs of the flight that confirmed an intensity of 40 kt. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI- numbers from TAFB are consistent with that data, and therefore the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

The vertical wind shear that stripped Peter of its deep convection earlier today is forecast to increase further through tonight and persist for at least a few days. Global model simulated satellite imagery suggests this latest burst of convection will also become removed from the center within several hours, with the cyclone struggling to maintain persistent deep convection throughout much of the 5-day forecast period. Therefore, despite being over very warm waters, Peter is forecast to slowly weaken over the next several days. The intensity model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there are some indications, particularly by the GFS, that Peter could open back into a wave within a few days which adds some additional uncertainty to the intensity forecast.

Peter's initial motion remains 290/15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue to move in this west-northwestward direction for the next couple of days as it is steered to the south of a subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken in a few days which should cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and turn northwestward. Late in the forecast period a turn to the north and possibly northeast is expected to occur as Peter gets caught in the flow around a large trough to its north. The model guidance has shifted westward beyond day 2, in part due to a faster forward motion. While the timing of the cyclone's turn to the north remains the same, the NHC forecast was shifted to the left beyond 48 h, but still remains to the east of the consensus.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area.