1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.

RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are expected to affect the northern Leeward Islands early this week, and then reach the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed on Wednesday, and then a turn to the north by Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Peter's evolution on satellite today is nearly a repeat of yesterday, with the deep convection having been stripped well east of the center in the morning and then redeveloping over and east of the center by the afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter this morning and early afternoon provided data during a few different passes through the northeast quadrant that supported peak surface winds of 40-45 kt. Since the convection has returned it is reasonable to assume that no weakening has occurred since the aircraft departed the cyclone, and the initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt.

Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain near 30 kt for the next few days as Peter interacts with an upper trough to its west, so some weakening is anticipated during that time. By late in the forecast period, the shear should lessen somewhat as the cyclone lifts north of the upper trough. Therefore, slow strengthening is indicated by late this week. There remains a possibility that Peter does not survive the shear over the next few days. However, the storm thus far has shown some resiliency to the hostile environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the various intensity consensus solutions.

Peter continues to move west-northwest but at a slightly slower pace of around 12 kt. The forecast track reasoning for the cyclone remains the same. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States. There were no significant changes to the track or the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the latest NHC track is closest to the TVCN and GFEX consensus tracks.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations.