1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.

RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to Hispaniola later today and the Bahamas on Wednesday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 63.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west northwest motion is expected to resume later today and continue for the next day or two. A turn to the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will pass north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Peter is a ragged and strongly sheared tropical storm. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low-level center is fully exposed and located about 100 miles west-southwest of the edge of the main area of deep convection. This very asymmetric structure is due to strong west-southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level low to the northwest of Peter. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but this could be a little generous. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning.

Since the storm has decoupled, the low-level center has been moving just south of due west at 265/10 kt. This motion has brought the storm to the southwest of the previous track. The models insist that Peter will turn back to the west-northwest soon and continue moving in that direction during the next couple of days as the storm moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a turn to the north and then northeast is expected as Peter moves toward broad troughing over the north Atlantic. The latest run of the ECMWF has come into line with the remainder of the guidance, and the new forecast is to the west of, and slower than, the previous one. This prediction lies on the south side of the guidance envelope during the first 24 hours of the forecast.

Peter is expected to remain in fairly hostile conditions during the next few days with strong westerly shear continuing and dry air likely entraining into the circulation. These negative factors for the storm should cause a slow decay, and that is reflected in the NHC forecast. In fact, some of the guidance suggests that Peter could succumb to the hostile conditions and open into a trough later this week. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance.