1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a north northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Peter is a disorganized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Most of the associated thunderstorm activity remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a 0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60 n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the circulation has become quite elongated. Since the hostile conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast. The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner.

The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.