1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by tomorrow, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas later today, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 61.6 West. Sam is moving toward the northnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated later today, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane into Saturday, with additional weakening forecast later in the weekend.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 936 mb (27.64 inches).

Sam's satellite structure on infrared remains quite impressive this evening, with a circular eye staying quite warm ( 10-20C) in comparison to the ring of cold cloud tops associated with the eyewall (-60 to -70C). The most recent microwave imagery was a SSMIS pass at 1957 UTC, which indicated the eyewall remains quite intense, if just a little asymmetric with a stronger western semicircle. This eyewall asymmetry is consistent with a touch of light southerly shear affecting the cyclone as diagnosed by ECMWF-SHIPS. However, this shear does not appear to be having a significant impact on the hurricane's intensity. While there have not been any recent aircraft data to determine Sam's intensity since the last mission departed the hurricane at around 2000 UTC, the satellite intensity estimates have not changed much this evening. Thus, the initial intensity has been held at 125-kt this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Mission will be flying into Sam overnight to get a better sense of the current intensity.

Following Sam's eye tonight, the hurricane is beginning to make a gradual turn northward at a faster motion, with the latest estimate now north-northwest at 345/14 kt. The track guidance in the short-term remains in good agreement that Sam should continue to turn to the north, north-northeast, and then northeastward as it is steered around the western edge of a large subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This track should take the hurricane east of Bermuda. While there is a large deep-layer trough located north of Sam, this feature will not initially capture the cyclone, as this trough first de-amplifies and merges with a larger deep-layer trough located over the far eastern Provinces of Canada. In fact, Sam's forward motion to the northeast in 48-72 hours may even slow a tad as it remains just south of the stronger upper-level westerlies. However, by 96-120 hours, the deep-layer low over Canada is expected to dig southeastward into North Atlantic, and will likely capture Sam as the hurricane rapidly accelerates ahead of this amplifying trough. It is in the 72-120 hour time-frame that a lot of the track guidance diverges, mostly related to the timing and degree of Sam's interaction of with this trough ejecting out of Canada. For now, the official NHC track forecast has elected to stay close to the track consensus TVCN, which has preformed well with this hurricane so far. This latest track is just a bit northeast and faster than the previous one after 72 hours.

Sam still has another 24 hours under warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures while the southerly vertical wind shear is expected to remain light. Thus, the hurricane is expected to maintain Category 4 intensity over the next day or so, with short-term intensity changes likely to be controlled by inner core dynamics (such as eyewall replacement cycles). Thereafter, sea surface temperatures decrease markedly as southerly shear is also expected to gradually increase. This combination should lead to steady weakening. After 72 hours, the rate of weakening has actually been slowed a tad, since the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian models all show Sam receiving significant baroclinic support as it undergoes a dynamic extratropical transition while the hurricane phases with the large baroclinic trough emerging off Canada. Simulated satellite imagery from these models suggest that Sam's transition to an extratropical cyclone should take place between 96-120 hours, with the resulting cyclone producing a large wind footprint across the North Atlantic basin.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Sam a few hours ago and found that the already-intense hurricane had strengthened a bit since yesterday afternoon's reconnaissance flight. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 147 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and using a typical 90-percent reduction from that altitude, the intensity is estimated to be 130 kt. Dropsondes released in the eye also indicated that the central pressure had fallen to 934 mb. This drop in pressure is likely due to a combination of the strengthening and an expansion of the tropical-storm- and hurricane-force wind fields, which was confirmed by the aircraft and scatterometer data from last evening.

Sam is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest (345/15 kt) as it curves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge located over the eastern and central subtropical Atlantic. The hurricane is expected to turn northward later today and then northeastward by Saturday night--passing well to the east of Bermuda--when it begins to move between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low located over the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. Interaction and a possible merger with the aforementioned low during extratropical transition is likely to cause a sudden north-northeastward acceleration to the southeast of Newfoundland on day 4, followed by a slower motion toward the east-northeast on day 5. The track models are very tightly clustered for much of the 5-day forecast period, yielding high confidence in the NHC track forecast. The new NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and closely follows the GFEX and TVCA consensus aids.

Although fluctuations in intensity will still be possible, a general weakening trend is anticipated in the coming days as Sam moves over a gradually cooler ocean, reaching sub-26C waters by day 3. However, the weakening is not expected to be rapid due to continued upper-level divergence and only light-to-moderate deep-layer shear, and Sam could remain a major hurricane at least through Saturday night. Global models now indicate that Sam should complete extratropical transition by day 4, and baroclinic forcing is likely to keep the system as a potent hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast, lying close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.