1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda during the next several hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next several hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 61.1 West. Sam is moving toward the northnortheast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will move away from Bermuda today.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane into Sunday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph (65 to 80 km/h).

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure has risen to 945 mb (27.91 inches).

The satellite appearance of Sam has degraded slightly during the past few hours, with the eye becoming more cloud filled and the eyewall cloud tops become a little less symmetric. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 115-130 kt range, and based on the slight decay the initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Sam.

Sam is making its forecast turn toward the north-northeast with the initial motion now 020/15 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory. The steering flow between a deep-layer ridge to the northeast and east of Sam and a large mid-latitude low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada should cause Sam to turn northeastward during the next 24 h, followed by a continued northeastward motion as the system become entrained in southwesterly mid-latitude flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, although there is some spread in both the track and the speed due to model differences in the cyclone's evolution as it becomes extratropical. The new forecast track lies close to the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models.

Slow weakening is expected to continue during the next 2-3 days as Sam moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and begins extratropical transition. This is likely to be complete by 72 h, with the global models suggesting that Sam will evolve into a warm-core seclusion extratropical low. Based on this and the guidance, it is likely that the cyclone will maintain hurricane strength until after the transition is done. By the end of the forecast period, the extratropical low is expected to be decaying over the far north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.