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At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 39.9 West. The storm is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast east is expected by tonight followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. However, Wanda may become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Wanda is now located to the west of the axis of the upper-level trough that it is embedded in. As a result, significant northerly vertical wind shear has developed over the storm, and between this and continuing dry air entrainment the associated convection is less organized than 24 h ago. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and based on continuity from earlier ASCAT data the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

After the earlier southwestward motion, Wanda is now turning southeastward with the initial motion of 125/6. The storm and the upper-level trough should move northeastward later today and then northward by 36-48 h as southerly flow between a large mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a ridge east of Wanda becomes the dominant steering mechanism. After 72 h, another mid-latitude ridge is expected to build between Wanda and the western Atlantic trough, and as a result the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southward. The latest track guidance shows a more northward motion than the previous guidance between 36-60 h, and a more southward motion after 96 h. The new forecast track has been nudged in those directions.

The intensity guidance suggests little change in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. However, the current shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-36 h, and this should help the system to transition to a tropical cyclone. By 120 h, Wanda is expected to become a post-tropical low as cooler sea surface temperatures and an even dryer air mass cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast.

Corrected initial position

Wanda is now located to the west of the axis of the upper-level trough that it is embedded in. As a result, significant northerly vertical wind shear has developed over the storm, and between this and continuing dry air entrainment the associated convection is less organized than 24 h ago. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and based on continuity from earlier ASCAT data the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

After the earlier southwestward motion, Wanda is now turning southeastward with the initial motion of 125/6. The storm and the upper-level trough should move northeastward later today and then northward by 36-48 h as southerly flow between a large mid-latitude trough over the northwestern Atlantic and a ridge east of Wanda becomes the dominant steering mechanism. After 72 h, another mid-latitude ridge is expected to build between Wanda and the western Atlantic trough, and as a result the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then southward. The latest track guidance shows a more northward motion than the previous guidance between 36-60 h, and a more southward motion after 96 h. The new forecast track has been nudged in those directions.

The intensity guidance suggests little change in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. However, the current shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-36 h, and this should help the system to transition to a tropical cyclone. By 120 h, Wanda is expected to become a post-tropical low as cooler sea surface temperatures and an even dryer air mass cause the convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast.