Tropical Depression Eighteen formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean Wednesday afternoon and is likely to become a long-lived hurricane. It is not possible yet to be confident this storm will turn out to sea like Peter and Rose, or Hurricane Larry before it.

Floridians usually have to wait much longer than the first day of autumn for that "fall feel" in the air. That won't be the case this year for those living north of I-4, as a noticeable cold front surges in.

The Tropical Atlantic has had no shortage of tropical storms in recent days.

Two days of heavy rain prompted flood watches and warnings across the northern third of Florida this weekend. That heavy rain risk will shift south this week, while the tropics stay active but non-threatening.

The remnant of what was once Hurricane Nicholas has dissipated over Louisiana, but the moisture out ahead of it remains and will contribute to wet conditions over a large portion of the state this weekend.

Flash Flood Watches continue thanks to heavy rain bands from Tropical Depression Nicholas.

The risk of flash flooding is expected to spread eastward along the Gulf coast from what was once Hurricane Nicholas.

There may still be a few stronger cells over the interior of the peninsula, favoring the Atlantic coast later Friday afternoon, but the threat of severe thunderstorms has lowered.