A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Panhandle ahead of Hurricane Zeta.

WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 53 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage andpower outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zeta's fast forward speed.

2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.


There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia through this evening.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Appalachians, MidAtlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.


At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Zeta is moving rapidly toward the eastnortheast near 53 mph (85 km/h). An even faster motion toward the eastnortheast is expected tonight and on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will continue to move across Virginia this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast once Zeta moves over the western Atlantic, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal system by Friday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) were recently reported at a station in Conway, North Carolina, to the east of Roanoke Rapids.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the interaction with land.Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the global model predictions.

The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours or so.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. This includes the cities of Pensacola, Navarre, and Fort Walton Beach. The Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Florida from the Alabama state line to Navarre, including Pensacola Bay. A Hurricane Watch has also been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, closer to where the center of Hurricane Zeta is forecast to track.

Zeta is expected to emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, where it is likely regain any strength that it loses over its brief time over land. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for intensification, but stronger winds aloft (often called wind shear) are likely to prevent significant strengthening over the central Gulf of Mexico. As Zeta approaches the Gulf Coast Wednesday, cooler sea surface temperatures and even stronger upper-level winds could contribute to some weakening prior to landfall. However, residents in the advised areas are being encouraged by forecasters to be prepared for hurricane impacts, including a life-threatening storm surge, wind, heavy rain and tornadoes.

Weather models continue to forecast landfall between Louisiana and the western side of the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive in the western sections of the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday evening, with worsening conditions expected overnight into early Thursday morning. A peak storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible from the Alabama state line to Navarre, Florida, especially near times of high tide. An inundation of water 1 to 3 feet above dry ground is possible as far east as the Nature Coast from Hurricane Zeta.

Conditions are expected to slowly improve along the northern Gulf coast Thursday as the storm quickly accelerates inland and crosses through the Southeast and the Mid Atlantic. Heavy rain, isolated tornadoes, and flooding may accompany a weakening Zeta during the day on Thursday through portions of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

If Hurricane Zeta comes ashore in Louisiana this week it will be the fifth tropical cyclone this year, and the eleventh cyclone to impact the continental United States, both of which are records.

Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne contributed to this story.

Expires at 6:00pm on Tuesday October 27th, 2020

Tropical Storm Zeta formed early Sunday morning in the northwestern Caribbean, 400 miles to the south-southeast of western Cuba. While it is too soon to know if Zeta will pose a direct threat to the Sunshine State, heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to be possible in some areas regardless.

WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 53 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage andpower outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zeta's fast forward speed.

2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.


There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia through this evening.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Appalachians, MidAtlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon across the Carolinas and southern Virginia.


At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Zeta is moving rapidly toward the eastnortheast near 53 mph (85 km/h). An even faster motion toward the eastnortheast is expected tonight and on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will continue to move across Virginia this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast once Zeta moves over the western Atlantic, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal system by Friday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) were recently reported at a station in Conway, North Carolina, to the east of Roanoke Rapids.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the interaction with land.Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the global model predictions.

The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours or so.



Torrential downpours and flash flooding will continue to be a threat through Sunday for most of South Florida and the western Bahamas. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of southeast Florida through Sunday evening. Additional rainfall accumulations of three to six inches are expected through Monday, with isolated higher amounts possible. A few stronger thunderstorms could also produce localized damaging wind gusts and the chance of waterspouts.

Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to bring storm surge, flooding rains, and wind impacts to portions of the Gulf Coast as early as Tuesday evening. The season's 28th tropical storm is forecast to slowly drift northwestward Sunday and Monday and approach parts of the Yucatán Peninsula Monday afternoon. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the province of Pinar del Rio in western Cuba. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in place for the northern Yucatán Peninsula. Once Zeta emerges into the central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center say it will enter into a favorable environment for strengthening, and Zeta could briefly become a hurricane before approaching the northern Gulf Coast.

The northern Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to be less conducive for development with high vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should aid in weakening the system as it approaches the coast sometime Wednesday afternoon. However, the exact track and strength of Zeta remains speculative. There will still be a chance that Zeta impacts at hurricane-strength and all Gulf Coast residents should continue to monitor the progression of this storm over the coming days.

Louisiana in particular has experienced a turbulent hurricane season so far this year with four total tropical cyclones impacting the state. Tropical Storm Cristobal came ashore over southeastern Louisiana on June 7th, followed by Tropical Storm Marco on August 24th. Three days later, Hurricane Laura made landfall as a Category 4 near Cameron. Laura tied with the 1856 Last Island Hurricane as the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the state as measured by maximum sustained wind speeds. Finally, on October 9th, the state was impacted again, this time by Hurricane Delta, a Category 2 storm. If Hurricane Zeta comes ashore in Louisiana this week it will be the fifth tropical cyclone this year, and the eleventh cyclone to impact the continental United States, both of which are records.

Only one other storm in history has been named Zeta and that occurred in the 2005 Hurricane Season. Zeta (2005) was the second tropical system on record to cross into a new year forming on December 30, 2005 and dissipating on January 7, 2006. The names Eta, and every succeeding letter used from the Greek alphabet, have never been used.

Tropical Depression 27 formed early Monday morning about 720 miles southeast of Bermuda.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

The depression does not pose any risk to the east coast of the United States, for now. A blocking high pressure to the north of the system is preventing it from traveling northward into the open Atlantic. Instead it is expected to meander in the vicinity over the next few days. However, there is expected to be some coastal impacts due to the strong high pressure to the north and Tropical Depression 27. Large swells will push westward towards the coastlines leading to high surf and dangerous rip currents this week. These coastal hazards could extend as far south as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Onshore winds from the depression could exacerbate the King Tides which have been peaking since Saturday along parts of the Southeast coast. Coastal flooding may continue across shorelines through early this week, especially if the depression intensifies offshore. The Monday morning forecast from the National Hurricane Center strengthens the depression into a tropical storm later Monday and into a hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

Additionally, the National Hurricane Center said there is a slight chance of tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean late this week. A broad area of low pressure may develop in the next two to five days to the south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Forecasters Monday morning have given this area a low chance of development over the next few days. It is too soon to determine if this system will pose a threat to Florida or the U.S. East Coast. 

Expires at 11:00am on Thursday October 22nd, 2020

A cold front will pass through the northern half of Florida this weekend, while attention turns to the Caribbean early next week for possible tropical development.

The high pressure system which has been responsible for the recent warm, dry weather is expected to move east and allow a cold front to move into the Florida Panhandle Friday. The front will then move into North Florida Friday night, before slowing to a crawl across central and south Florida on Saturday and Sunday respectively.

A sharp temperature gradient will develop across the peninsula Saturday, and a strong northeast flow behind the front will create rough surf and minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic Coast.

A shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible ahead of the cold front, but limited moisture will keep rain chances low in most areas through Saturday. Showers are more likely across south and east Florida Sunday thanks to a strengthening onshore flow bringing more moisture into the area.

Cooler and drier air will follow the passage of the front, dropping temperatures near or slightly below average for at least a day across the panhandle and portions of North Florida. Morning lows will fall into the 60s north of the I-4 corridor Saturday, and afternoon highs will only rebound to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Near-normal temperatures are expected across South Florida where the front will have less of an impact.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

All eyes will then turn to the tropics early next week, where a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has the potential to develop. The National Hurricane Center outlined the area as having a "low chance" of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two to five days. Environmental conditions are then expected to become more favorable for development and long range forecast models suggest the system might move toward the north or northeast by late next week.

Hurricane season officially ends November 30th, but South Florida is generally more vulnerable to cyclones during the month of October. Storms typically develop this time of year in the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast of the United States, often giving residents little time to prepare due to the proximity to land.

Expires at 8:00am on Saturday October 17th, 2020

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms, referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 (PTC 26), is expected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek bringing an increase in moisture to the Sunshine State and possibly threatening northern Gulf coastlines.

PTC 26 was designated by the National Hurricane Center Sunday afternoon 90 miles to the south of Kingston, Jamaica. Meteorologists anticipate that environmental conditions will become more favorable for further development and a tropical depression could form late Sunday night.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

The Government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and the Cuban Government has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of Youth and the provinces of Del Rio and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the province of La Habana. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba over the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Weather models are in a general agreement that PTC 26 will continue tracking to the west-northwest across the Caribbean and travel between the Yucatán Peninsula and near western Cuba before entering into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and possibly strengthening into a hurricane. Long-term model guidance begins to vary greatly regarding strength and direction once the system enters into the Gulf of Mexico.

Preliminary models are suggesting a high pressure ridge building over much of the Southeast United States this week which will help to divert the storm northward and keep its distance from the Sunshine State. However, other weather models are hinting at the ridge building further east which could bring the disturbance closer to the state, particularly the Florida Panhandle. Moisture is expected to increase across the Florida Peninsula regardless of PTC 26's track this week. The northern Gulf of Mexico is anticipated to remain unfavorable regarding high vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures close to the northern Gulf shorelines. Strong vertical winds could shear the rain field of the system and drag the moisture eastward towards Florida beginning in South Florida as early as Tuesday and progressing northward into the Florida Panhandle by next weekend where a potential landfall could occur somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center says that there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle ahead of PTC 26. Residents are advised to monitor the progress of the system over the next several days.

Regardless of development and track, Floridians should remain vigilant over the next few weeks as the hurricane season approaches the final stretch. There are two other areas in the open Atlantic which have low chances for development over the next several days but pose no threat to any land masses.

If PTC 26 attains tropical storm status it will be given the Greek alphabet name Delta. This name has only been used once before in 2005 when it formed on November 23.

Two tropical waves have the potential to develop in the Caribbean by this weekend, and one of them could be of particular interest to Florida next week.

The active pace of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season came to a standstill last week, giving coastal residents a brief sigh of relief. However, meteorologists anticipate that the basin could enter into another active period later this week as the final active month of the hurricane season approaches.

On Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center outlined an area of broad showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Caribbean Sea as having a moderate chance of developing into a tropical system within the next five days. The disturbance is expected to move westward and interact with a frontal system by the end of the week, which will likely enhance thunderstorm activity and organization. Environmental conditions are then forecast to be conducive for further development over the weekend, when a tropical depression could form as the system moves towards the Yucatán Peninsula.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

There is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the development of the system and a range of scenarios for its potential track. The disturbance could drift inland over the Yucatán Peninsula and southern Mexico, become near stationary in the Bay of Campeche, or drift eastward and enter into the central Gulf of Mexico which, at that time, could threaten Gulf Coast States.

There is also another scenario that weather models are hinting at where two systems form within a few days of each other instead of just one. If this scenario plays out, one of the systems could travel westward into Central America and the second system would form east towards Cuba and likely track to the north.

Tropical cyclone genesis tends to favor the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico during the month of October, bringing systems very close to land. The transition from Summer to Autumn in the northern hemisphere generally introduces cooler temperatures and stronger vertical wind shear across the open Atlantic which aids in suppressing tropical cyclone development. The Atlantic is expected to remain quiet into the end of the week as a vast area of enhanced wind shear continues to be draped over the region and extend east towards the west coast of Africa. This wind shear area could lessen by the end of the weekend which could allow more tropical cyclone development in the upcoming weeks.

Twenty storms so far this season have became the earliest on record to develop in a calendar year. Nine of those tropical cyclones have directly impacted the United States, which ties the record set in 1916. The next named tropical storm for the 2020 season would be "Gamma", the third letter in the Greek Alphabet and the second time ever to be utilized.

Expires at 6:00pm on Thursday October 1st, 2020

The first strong front of the fall season is set to arrive in Florida this week, with widespread showers and thunderstorms marking its arrival and an autumn-like cool down likely in its wake.

Moisture has already been on the rebound across much of the state ahead of the front, which was evident by how numerous and long-lasting the downpours were on Sunday. Wet weather is expected again Monday across most of north and central Florida as a weak warm front lifts north. This will be followed by the arrival of a strong cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, producing another widespread round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it.

Higher levels of instability and deep amounts of atmospheric moisture are forecast to create an environment favorable for the strong storms across the northern third of the state, including the Floridan Panhandle, Tuesday. The strongest cells would be capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, excessive lightning, and isolated tornadoes. Localized flash flooding will also be possible, especially across already saturated soil in the Florida Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are then likely in portions of central and south Florida when the front arrives in these locations Wednesday, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds also possible.

Many Floridians will find a positive side to this approaching cold front, and that is the return of fall-like temperatures and a drier weather pattern that moves in behind it. Daytime highs will only range from the 70s across the Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida to the lower 80s in areas farther south across Central Florida. Low temperatures could dip into the 50s and 60s across these areas Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and the below-average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week.

While the northern two-thirds of The Sunshine State begin to dry out, the front may have trouble clearing South Florida. As a result, a wet pattern could continue in cities like Key West, Naples and Miami through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Weather models are indicating that the cold front will stall near line from Fort Myers to Fort Pierce, allowing the tropical moisture to remain in place and scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue.

This week's cold front is expected to be the strongest of the season so far, and it would be considered earlier than normal in most Florida cities. For example, a front of this strength wouldn't typically move through Central Florida until sometime in mid-October.

Even though a period of cooler and drier weather is expected later this week across most of the state, it should be noted that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is not over. Tropical storms can and do often develop along stalled fronts of this nature in the Gulf of Mexico or northern Caribbean Sea during the month of October. However, at the present time, there are no tropical threats looming for at least the next five days.

Expires at 12:00am on Tuesday September 29th, 2020

Tropical activity has been excessively active throughout August and September, but now a lull is expected for at least the next two weeks as the final active month of hurricane season approaches.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

A strong convectively-suppressed Kelvin wave, which causes sinking air and less thunderstorm genesis, is expected to pass through the tropical Atlantic over the next 10 to 14 days. This is expected to inhibit tropical cyclone development over the open Atlantic as the month of October approaches.

Carl Schreck III of the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies and North Carolina State University studies the effects of Kelvin waves and how they influence the development of tropical cyclones. Atmospheric Kelvin waves are tropical rainfall systems accompanied by distinctive westerly and easterly wind patterns. The waves move eastward around the planet sometimes lasting for week and can circumnavigate the tropics over the course of a month.

Schrecks’ study finds that fewer cyclones develop in the three days leading up to a Kelvin wave’s maximum rainfall, while more storms form in the three days afterward.

The National Weather Service Prediction Center notes that this brief quiet period may only last for the remainder of September before environmental conditions become favorable again for cyclogenesis, particularly in the Caribbean and the far eastern Atlantic.

During the month of October as temperatures cool in preparation for Fall and Winter, tropical activity begins to favor parts of the Caribbean and southern regions of the Gulf of Mexico, where warm sea surface temperatures and minimal vertical wind shear remain.

However, these favorable areas are much closer to land which may give coastal residents less time to be informed about an approaching tropical system and minimal time to prepare. Mid-October statistically produces a second spike in tropical cyclone activity before the season as whole begins to decline. Notable storms which formed in the month of October include: Hurricane Wilma (2005), the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide as measured by barometric pressure outside of the West Pacific; Hurricane Sandy (2012), one of the largest cyclones and the fifth costliest on record; Hurricane Michael (2018), coming ashore as a Category 5 and the tenth costliest hurricane on record; and Hurricane Opal (1995), the strongest Category 4 hurricane recorded and the third most severe landfalling cyclone in the United States based on size and intensity.

Hurricane Season concludes November 30th giving ample time for another spike in tropical activity. Once this Kelvin wave passes activity could ramp up again by mid to late October.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has already brought a total of 20 records for earliest named storms and it may break another record for most landfalls in the United States. A total of nine cyclones have impacted the States this season, tying the 1916 season.

Expires at 8:00am on Friday September 25th, 2020

A Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning have been issued for Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties in the Florida Panhandle, including the city of Pensacola, ahead of Sally.

Sally strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane late Monday afternoon with maximum sustained wind speeds of 100 mph and a slow forward speed of 5 mph towards the west-northwest.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center shifted the track of Sally eastward, bringing the hazards from the storm closer to parts of the Florida Panhandle. Due to Sally's slow forward speed, persistent heavy rainfall is expected to last through at least Thursday, with western locations in the Panhandle forecast to receive between 10 and 15 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday.

Hurricane force wind gusts are possible in the warned area beginning late Monday evening and lasting through at least Tuesday night. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across parts of the central and western Panhandle through Monday night.

Storm surge heights between 2 and 4 feet are expected along the western coastlines with surge height of 1 to 3 feet possible near the city of Destin and east through Apalachicola.

Sally is expected to continue strengthening Monday night and into Tuesday as it slowly approaches the northern Gulf Coast where is could make landfall near the Mississippi and Alabama border as a Category 2 hurricane. Sally is then anticipated to meander slowly north-northeast crossing through Alabama and Wednesday and Thursday before potentially degenerating back into a tropical depression over Georgia.

Two new tropical depressions formed in the central and eastern Atlantic Sunday night, but neither are expected to be a threat to the United States at this time.

Tropical Depression Seventeen intensified into Tropical Storm Paulette late Monday morning over the central Atlantic, 1,375 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Paulette is expected to continue tracking slowly to the west-northwest over the next several days, with modest additional strengthening anticipated through the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Paulette is then likely to curve and favor a more northerly direction by the end of the week, which would take it away from North America and any land areas.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

Further east, Tropical Depression Eighteen (TD18) was continuing to organize quickly Monday afternoon as it approached the Cabo Verde Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the islands, which do not often receive a direct impact from tropical systems. The National Hurricane Center is anticipating that TD18 will strengthen into a tropical storm late Monday, bringing heavy rainfall and tropical storm-force winds to the islands Monday night and Tuesday morning. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next several days as the storm tracks west-northwest towards the central Atlantic, where it could become a hurricane by the end of the week. Long range forecast models are anticipating a turn more to the north over the next several days, which would also keep the system over open waters.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

Elsewhere in the tropics, a low pressure system southwest of Bermuda has evolved into an area of interest for potential development later this week. However, at this time, it is not expected to become a significant tropical threat to the United States and will likely stay just offshore. The National Hurricane Center says that this area has a low chance of gradual development over the next two to five days as it moves westward toward the Mid-Atlantic states.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

Paulette is the earliest "P" storm on record, surpassing the previous record of Philippe which formed on September 17, 2005. If TD18 strengthens into a tropical storm it will be given the name "Rene" and break the record for earliest "R" storm if it forms before September 18. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has so far set an impressive thirteen records for earliest named storms.

Expires at 11:00am on Tuesday September 8th, 2020

Loading...