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Dry conditions continue, fronts next week?

Our historically dry November looks like it will close on a dry note.  First, the front moving through today is bringing in a modestly drier airmass, pushing lows back in the upper 40s and low 50s the next two nights.…

Freeze Warning Monday Morning

Our first taste of winter is on the way tonight.   The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Freeze Warning  for nearly all inland areas from 3 to 8 AM. Residents are urged to bring pets indoors and cover sensitive…

Supermoon Viewing Guide for North Florida

The biggest moon since the Truman administration will light up the sky for the next two nights.     The so-called “supermoon”, the biggest and brightest full moon of 2016, will be highest in the north Florida sky shortly before…

Tracking a weak low, cooler air moving in

High pressure will remain in control across the SE US over the next 7 - 10 days. Relatively dry conditions are expected for north Florida in that timespan. Mon. night - Tuesday: E flow continues to bring isolated coastal showers…

Dry, Warm Finish to October Expected

One more cool night Monday Night (upper 40's) Lows warm 15 to 20º by Wednesday Night Notable increase in humidity, but rain chances remain low   Records fell across north Florida on Sunday morning in the wake of a strong front…

First fall front moves in, watching 97L

I made some tweaks to POPs over the next couple days due to changes in model solutions. I raised today’s POPs from 20/30 to 40 based on sounding info and hi-res PWAT model guidance. I increased Monday and Tuesday each…

Tropical moisture moving in, watching Karl

A shortwave to our west will move over North Florida Monday, increasing rain chances in the afternoon and evening. I have increased POPs based on Euro guidance although the WRF is still showing less activity. I think activity will be…

Hint of Autumn in the Air This Week

Morning lows will drop into the 60s through Thursday Little or no rain and plenty of sun through Friday No threat from the tropics the next five days It could be called “the calm AFTER the storm”. After a soggy, stormy…

T.D. Nine is here, direct impacts to FL expected

Invest 99L was finally upgraded to T.D. Nine at 5pm Sunday. The storm strengthened just a bit Sunday night and current estimates place the storm near the Nature Coast on Thursday night as a 60-mph tropical storm. It is worth…

High pressure building, watching Invest 99L

Near-term, high pressure will continue to suppress most convection. The Gulf seabreeze has managed to spark a few isolated downpours this afternoon, and there could be a seabreeze merger east of Hwy 301 this evening. Models are suggesting a relative…

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