Rarely does nature follow the precise flip of the calendar, but as hurricane season officially ends, winter arrives in Florida.

The season's first freeze is likely across inland areas of the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning, and subfreezing wind chills could dip as far south as the I-4 corridor in Central Florida.

A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all inland areas from Florida's Big Bend to Pensacola. Tuesday morning lows in the warned area will range from near 30 along the I-10 corridor to around 32 just a few miles from the coast. Temperatures are the beaches will fall to between 32 and 35. A Freeze Watch is in effect for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across a large section of North Florida, when lighter winds and an even colder push of air will likely send the mercury below freezing in those locations.

A brisk north wind Monday night will send wind chills (what it will feel like) to the middle and upper 20s across most of the Florida Panhandle and North Florida by 7 am, and wind chills near or just below freezing are possible as far south as the outskirts of Orlando, Tampa and Lakeland.

This early winter-like air mass will make it all the way to South Florida as well, where Wednesday morning lows could fall to the 40s in outlying areas near Fort Myers, Naples, and Miami.

The cold snap will likely linger through Thursday, before temperatures gradually moderate back to normal for early December by the end of the week.

Expires at 10:00am on Tuesday December 1st, 2020

A strong storm system has the potential to produce severe thunderstorms across portions of the Sunshine State Sunday night and Monday, which will then be followed by the coldest air of the late fall season for all of Florida.

Thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage and tornadoes will be lined up ahead of a cold front when it arrives near Pensacola and the Emerald Coast late Sunday afternoon and evening. The storms are expected to reach the Panama City and Tallahassee regions later Sunday Night, then move into portions of north and central Florida from Gainesville and Ocala to Jacksonville and Orlando Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible in South Florida along the front Monday night, although they will likely be weaker and more on the scattered side.

The air mass following Sunday and Monday's front will be the coldest of the late-fall season. In fact, so cold that the first frost or freeze of the winter will likely occur across inland areas north of the I-4 corridor and across the Florida Panhandle Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

Expires at 6:00am on Sunday November 29th, 2020

Two storm systems could affect outdoor plans across the Sunshine State this holiday weekend, with the latter potentially being more disruptive to those with travel plans Sunday or Monday.

The first system will be weak and mostly only affect the northern third of the state, but it might dampen a few Thanksgiving Day plans. Severe thunderstorms swept across portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana Tuesday night ahead of strong cold front. This front is likely to weaken during the day Wednesday as it approaches the Florida Panhandle, but scattered showers will still be possible along it through Wednesday night. The severe threat will be minimal by the time the front approaches Pensacola and the Emerald Coast, but enough instability may exist for a few thunderstorms through Thursday in these areas.

Shower chances will spread east Thanksgiving Day, potentially affecting holiday outdoor plans near Panama City and Tallahassee. However, the front triggering this activity is expected to stall to the north of Florida, thereby keeping most of this activity spotty and weak. The rest of Florida will likely be warm and dry on Thursday, with temperatures slightly above average for this time of year thanks to a broad southerly flow.

The warm and dry weather will continue across most of Florida Friday. High temperatures will trend several degrees above average, averaging near 80 across the Florida Peninsula, with upper 70s expected in the panhandle.

Changes will begin Saturday across northern sections of the state, ahead of what will become the next storm system that is likely to affect the Southeast Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are in the forecast from Pensacola to Tallahassee Saturday, followed by more numerous downpours and a few stronger thunderstorms ahead of a second cold front late Sunday.

The front moving across Florida Sunday and Monday may be strong enough to produce severe thunderstorms and gusty winds, although there are too many unknown factors that prevent a more confident forecast on this occurring at the present time. Airport travel may also be slowed across a large portion of the country by this storm Sunday, especially across the Ohio Valley where winter precipitation is expected.

Tropical Storm Eta's next move is becoming a bit clearer, and the forecast track has again shifted. The shift is to the east this time, which puts more of Florida's Gulf Coast at risk for impacts.

The Tropical Storm Watch issued Tuesday afternoon for the greater Tampa metro area and portions of the Nature Coast was upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning just six hours later. It was also extended farther south to Bonita Beach and now includes Cape Coral, Fort Myers and Port Charlotte. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued along Florida's Big Bend from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, and a Storm Surge Watch was issued for coastal residents from the Steinhatchee River also to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay.

Tropical storm force winds of 40 to 60 mph are now likely in the warned area from Fort Myers to Tampa as early as Wednesday night, spreading north along the Nature Coast and portions of North-Central Florida during the day Thursday. Gusts nearing hurricane force are also possible in these areas along the coast, which will likely coincide with the stronger rain bands as they rotate inland.

The National Hurricane Center says a life-threatening storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible from the Nature Coast to just north of Naples, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas are encouraged to listen to local authorities for possible evacuation orders Wednesday. An inundation of 1 to 2 feet above dry ground is possible farther south from Bonita Beach to Florida Bay.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said the most recent shift in the forecast guidance was a bit of a "surprise", and likely a result of additional hurricane hunter data recently ingested into the models. Atmospheric conditions are still expected to be hostile to the storm as it moves north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the official forecast continues to call for gradual weakening after Wednesday. However, the rate of weakening and speed of the storm are still very much in question due to large spreads in how the models handle several external factors that will likely play a role in Eta's fate.

Regardless of how strong Tropical Storm Eta still is when it moves into the northeastern Gulf later this week, heavy rain, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes are possible in the same areas under the Tropical Storm Warning Thursday and Friday. A few outer rain bands not directly associated with Eta are likely to continue producing locally heavy rain occasionally in South and Central Florida as well through at least Wednesday. The National Weather Service continued Flood Watches into Wednesday evening for Southeast Florida because of the possibility of additional heavy rain on top of already saturated ground.

A high risk of rip currents will continue for several more days in Collier county on the west coast and along the Gold coast of Southeast Florida. High Surf Advisories were issued from the Treasure and Space Coasts northward to the First Coast, and rip currents are also anticipated in these areas through Thursday.

Eta is increasingly likely to encounter higher wind shear and dry air starting Thursday, which would cause the storm to weaken as it moves north toward Apalachee Bay. However, forecasters noted in their advisory late Tuesday evening that the center of Tropical Storm Eta might reform to the east of its current location. If it does, there remains the possibility that Eta would briefly regain hurricane strength and make landfall somewhere along the Nature Coast or just north of Tampa Bay.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Subtropical Storm Theta formed in the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean Monday evening. It's the season's 29th named storm -- a new all-time record for the number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin in one season. Theta is not forecast to affect land areas at this time. Yet another tropical wave in the central Caribbean has a high chance of becoming the season's next tropical depression later this week or weekend when it reaches the western Caribbean. It is far too soon to say whether it will ever impact the U.S. coastline.

Expires at 6:00pm on Wednesday November 11th, 2020

Tropical Storm Eta has moved into the Gulf of Mexico, where competing atmospheric factors are leading to low confidence on its next move. As such, a credible forecast on when, where, and even if a second landfall will occur in Florida cannot be made at this time.

The season's 29th tropical storm became the 12th storm to make a U.S. landfall as it crossed the Upper Florida Keys late Sunday evening. As of Monday morning, Tropical Storm Eta was marching west-southwest into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and had maximum sustained winds up to 65 mph. Model simulations are in relatively good agreement that this motion will continue with Eta over the next 24 hours, sending it a few hundred miles offshore from Southwest Florida by late Tuesday. What Eta does next is highly uncertain.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

In their early Monday morning update, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said there will likely be "large changes" to the long range forecast track of Eta. The storm is sandwiched between two ridges over the western Gulf of Mexico and east of Florida, which is likely to cause Eta to slow down considerably by midweek. A trough of low pressure in the southwestern United States is forecast to erode the ridge in the western Gulf enough to cause Eta to move slowly north Wednesday into Thursday. However, computer models do not agree whether the trough will extend far enough south to completely pick up Eta. Another trough off the Pacific Northwest coast is expected to move into the central U.S. on Friday. It is also unclear whether this second trough will extend far enough south to steer the tropical storm. Small changes in any of these potential steering mechanisms will have a large impact on the eventual track of Eta.

Regardless of what happens with Tropical Storm Eta in the coming days, the short-term flood risk continues in parts of South Florida. Official observing sites and radar estimations suggest more than a foot of rain has fallen in portions of Miami-Dade and Broward counties over the past two days. Numerous reports of flash flooding had been received by local officials in and around the communities of Miami Lakes, Pembroke Pines, Davie and Fort Lauderdale.

Outer rain bands from Tropical Storm Eta are still likely to affect the warned areas through Monday afternoon, although the steadier and heavier rain from Eta is forecast to shift into Southwest Florida. An isolated tornado or water spout also remains possible through Monday evening where stronger cells may induce low-level spin. Periodic downpours are expected farther north as well, across much of central Florida through the day Tuesday, thanks in large part to the broad counter-clockwise circulation around Eta pulling in moisture from the Atlantic.

Saltwater flooding from high seas and rough surf is also likely to continue in the Florida Keys, along the shores of the Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay through early Tuesday, especially at times of high tide. Minor coastal flooding will also continue to be possible up and down the Atlantic Coast from the persistent onshore flow through at least Tuesday. Elsewhere across Florida, relatively quiet weather should ensue through midweek while Tropical Storm Eta remains well offshore.

With the forecast track of Tropical Storm Eta highly uncertain, it is still too soon to project potential impacts to locations farther north, such as along the Nature Coast or in Florida's Big Bend. However, residents in these areas are encouraged to stay vigilant and be prepared to act quickly since there might be little notice of potential impacts from Eta given it's close proximity to land later this week.

Expires at 11:00am on Tuesday November 10th, 2020

A Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay ahead of Tropical Storm Eta.

Data from a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph and additional strengthening is possible during the next 48-hours. Eta could become a Category 1 hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys late Sunday.

A Storm Surge Warning is also in effect from the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. A Storm Surge Watch continues for coastal areas from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay.

A Hurricane Watch continues to be in effect for coastal areas from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach. Tropical Storm Warnings were also issued in anticipation of strong winds and heavy rain that are expected to arrive Sunday. The warning includes the Florida coast from the Brevard and Volusia County line to Englewood including Lake Okeechobee. This includes the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Naples metro areas, along with all of the Florida Keys and Key West.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

Eta was continuing to move towards the north over central Cuba early Sunday morning, and is expected to move into the Florida Straits by Sunday afternoon. A gradual turn towards the north-northwest is anticipated Sunday afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn in the evening. The National Hurricane Center anticipates the center of Eta to pass near or over the Florida Keys late Sunday night and early Monday before moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

By midweek, uncertainty remains too high to make a credible projection on where or whether Eta might make a second landfall across portions of northern Florida or dissipate entirely. However, confidence is high that upper-level steering currents are likely to weaken, thereby causing Eta to move extremely slow or even stall Wednesday or Thursday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Where Flood Risk is Highest

Inland fresh-water flooding is still the greatest hazard from Eta in South Florida, especially across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties where soils are saturated and many bodies of water are already full from a very wet October. Pockets of heavy rain were already observed spreading over much of South Florida Saturday, well removed from Tropical Storm Eta's main area of thunderstorm activity south of Cuba. The rain is only expected to become steadier and heavier Sunday night and Monday as the center of Eta moves closer.

The highest rainfall accumulations from Eta will likely occur south of Interstate 75 from Naples to Miami, and in the Florida Keys, where 8 to 12 inches is expected to fall by Friday, with isolated amounts up to 18 inches possible. Rainfall totals in southeast Florida may exceed ten inches over the next three days, with 4 to 8 inches most likely near and southeast of a line from Naples to Fort Pierce, Florida. Lesser rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected near and north of a line from Fort Myers to Melbourne, although uncertainty remains on how much rain may fall beyond Tuesday depending on the eventual track and strength of Eta in the eastern Gulf.

Sporadic Power Outages Likely

Sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph, are most likely to arrive in southeast Florida near Miami and the upper Keys late Sunday evening. Winds of this strength are possible in southwest Florida near Naples by early Monday morning. Sporadic power outages from down trees or power lines should be planned for in these areas when the strongest winds arrive. The highest gusts are most likely to accompany the heaviest rain bands, which could arrive well before the center of Eta passes nearby. If Eta intensifies further as it approaches the Florida Keys, winds gusts may climb up towards 70 mph.

Surge Threat Prompts Evacuations

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible in from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, which includes the Florida Keys and Biscayne Bay. A mandatory evacuation order was given by Monroe County officials for mobile homes, trailers, and campers. Several shelters were also made available for residents by the Monroe County emergency management Sunday afternoon.

A storm surge of 1 to 2 feet is possible farther north along the Treasure, Space and First Coasts. Coastal flooding is expected in these areas even though they may be hundreds of miles from Eta's track due to the strong and persistent onshore flow out of the east-southeast. The uncertainties around Tropical Storm Eta's eventual track and strength make a credible storm surge forecast across west-central Florida and along the Nature Coast not possible at this time.

Additional Impacts

Brief, fast-moving isolated tornadoes will be possible from Eta across most of South Florida Sunday, then potentially for areas farther north into Central Florida on Monday. The tornado risk will be contingent on where the strongest rain bands move in association with the areas of greatest spin. Large waves and high surf are also anticipated from the storm on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from Tropical Storm Eta, increasing the risk of rip currents at all area beaches. Swimmers and boaters are encouraged to stay docked and out of the water until Eta dissipates or moves away sometime late next week.

Meteorologists from the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Eta through the weekend, and frequent updates will be available via the Florida Storms social media accounts or in the Florida Storms app.

Expires at 11:00am on Monday November 9th, 2020

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for portions of South Florida, ahead of a strengthening Tropical Storm Eta's approach.

The Hurricane Watch is in effect for coastal areas from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. The Storm Surge Watch includes roughly the same coastal areas, but only extends north to Golden Beach on the Atlantic Coast.

Tropical Storm Warnings were also issued in anticipation of strong winds and heavy rain that are expected to arrive Sunday. The warning includes the counties of Broward, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Miami-Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach. This includes the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach and Naples metro areas, along with all of the Florida Keys and Key West.

Eta regained tropical storm strength Saturday morning, and continued to intensify as it accelerated toward Cuba Saturday afternoon. As of 4 pm EST, hurricane hunters found that Tropical Storm Eta had winds up to 60 mph and a minimum pressure of 994 mb. The storm was located 230 miles west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba and was moving northeast at 17 mph.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

The forecast track of Tropical Storm Eta has been nudged northward over the past 24 hours, although model simulations have been persistent on suggesting the heaviest rain and wind from the storm will affect a large portion of South Florida regardless. Eta is expected to cross Cuba Sunday, then move over the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula Monday, followed by a slower forward speed as it moves west into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Thereafter, uncertainty is too high to make a credible projection on where or whether Eta might make a second landfall across portions of northern Florida or dissipate entirely. However, confidence is high that upper-level steering currents are likely to weaken, thereby causing Eta to move extremely slow or even stall Wednesday or Thursday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for Tropical Storm Eta to maintain tropical characteristics or intensify much further before landfall in Florida. However, interactions with a nearby upper-level disturbance may act to enhance Eta's rain and wind, and force those conditions spread much farther from the storm's center. It is also possible that Eta would briefly reach hurricane strength over the Florida Straits, although this will have little affect on the anticipated impacts to aforementioned areas under a watch or warning.

Flood Risk Highest in Southeast Florida

Inland fresh-water flooding is still the greatest hazard from Eta in South Florida, especially across Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties where soils are saturated and many bodies of water are already full from a very wet October. Pockets of heavy rain were already observed spreading over much of South Florida Saturday, well removed from Tropical Storm Eta's main area of thunderstorm activity south of Cuba. The rain is only expected to become steadier and heavier Sunday night and Monday as the center of Eta moves closer.

Rainfall accumulations in southeast Florida may exceed ten inches over the next three days, with 4 to 8 inches most likely near and southeast of a line from Naples to Fort Pierce, Florida. Lesser rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected near and north of a line from Fort Myers to Melbourne, although uncertainty remains on how much rain may fall beyond Tuesday depending on the eventual track and strength of Eta in the eastern Gulf.

Sporadic Power Outages Likely in South Florida

Sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph, are most likely to arrive in southeast Florida near Miami and the upper Keys late Sunday evening. Winds of this strength are possible in southwest Florida near Naples by early Monday morning. Sporadic power outages from down trees or power lines should be planned for in these areas when the strongest winds arrive. The highest gusts are most likely to accompany the heaviest rain bands, which could arrive well before the center of Eta passes nearby.

Storm Surge Might Prompt Evacuations

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible in the Storm Surge Watch from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, which includes the Florida Keys and Biscayne Bay. Residents near the coast and in the advised area are encouraged to listen to local authorities for possible evacuation orders to be given Sunday. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible farther north along the Treasure and Space Coasts, with 2 to 3 feet possible along the First Coast. Coastal flooding is expected in these areas even though they may be hundreds of miles from Eta's track due to the strong and persistent onshore flow out of the east-southeast. The uncertainties around Tropical Storm Eta's eventual track and strength make a credible storm surge forecast across west-central Florida and along the Nature Coast not possible at this time.

Additional Impacts from Eta

Brief, fast-moving tornadoes will be possible from Tropical Storm Eta across most of South Florida Sunday, then potentially for areas farther north into Central Florida on Monday. The tornado risk will be contingent on where the strongest rain bands move in association with the areas of greatest spin. Large waves and high surf are also anticipated from the storm on both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts from Tropical Storm Eta, increasing the risk of rip currents at all areas beaches. Swimmers and boaters are encouraged to stay docked and out of the water until Eta dissipates or moves away sometime late next week.

Meteorologists from the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Eta through the weekend, and frequent updates will be available via the Florida Storms social media accounts or in the Florida Storms app.

Expires at 11:00am on Sunday November 8th, 2020

A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Panhandle ahead of Hurricane Zeta.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. This includes the cities of Pensacola, Navarre, and Fort Walton Beach. The Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal areas of Florida from the Alabama state line to Navarre, including Pensacola Bay. A Hurricane Watch has also been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border, closer to where the center of Hurricane Zeta is forecast to track.

Zeta is expected to emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning, where it is likely regain any strength that it loses over its brief time over land. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for intensification, but stronger winds aloft (often called wind shear) are likely to prevent significant strengthening over the central Gulf of Mexico. As Zeta approaches the Gulf Coast Wednesday, cooler sea surface temperatures and even stronger upper-level winds could contribute to some weakening prior to landfall. However, residents in the advised areas are being encouraged by forecasters to be prepared for hurricane impacts, including a life-threatening storm surge, wind, heavy rain and tornadoes.

Weather models continue to forecast landfall between Louisiana and the western side of the Florida Panhandle Wednesday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive in the western sections of the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday evening, with worsening conditions expected overnight into early Thursday morning. A peak storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible from the Alabama state line to Navarre, Florida, especially near times of high tide. An inundation of water 1 to 3 feet above dry ground is possible as far east as the Nature Coast from Hurricane Zeta.

Conditions are expected to slowly improve along the northern Gulf coast Thursday as the storm quickly accelerates inland and crosses through the Southeast and the Mid Atlantic. Heavy rain, isolated tornadoes, and flooding may accompany a weakening Zeta during the day on Thursday through portions of Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

If Hurricane Zeta comes ashore in Louisiana this week it will be the fifth tropical cyclone this year, and the eleventh cyclone to impact the continental United States, both of which are records.

Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne contributed to this story.

Expires at 6:00pm on Tuesday October 27th, 2020

Localized flooding will continue to be possible across portions of South Florida through Thursday, thanks to tropical moisture being funneled in by a disturbance south of Cuba.

A Flood Watch continues through at least Wednesday evening for coastal and metro areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center says the disturbance south of Cuba has a “low chance” of tropical development in the next five days as it moves east of Florida and toward the Bahamas. At the present time, this disturbance does not pose an immediate or significant tropical threat to the State of Florida. However the presence of nearby tropical moisture could enhance rainfall rates in portions of South Florida over the coming days, or until the system moves farther away from the Sunshine State.

WATCHING CLOSELY
NHC: Low chance of tropical development in next five days.

Expires at 12:00pm on Thursday October 22nd, 2020

Flash flooding and a few tornadoes remain possible through Wednesday night across portions of the Florida Panhandle and North Florida.

Thunderstorm cells embedded in the outer rain bands of Hurricane #Sally may rotate and produce a tornado, and repeating nature of the cells within the band could lead to flash flooding.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

A Tornado Watch has been issued all areas of the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to Crestview through 6 pm CDT Wednesday, but it could be expanded to areas farther east later in the afternoon or evening.

A Flash Flood Watch continues for the entire Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning, and as of midday Wednesday, nearly every county was also under a Flash Flood Warning with various expiration times in the afternoon hours.

The warning means flooding has been reported or was imminent. As of 12:15 pm CDT, there had been more than 50 reports of flooding, most of which have occurred along the Emerald Coast from Pensacola to Panama City Beach. However, nearly a dozen of the reports were from inland areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.

A Flash Flood Emergency was even issued for the greater Pensacola metro area where the National Weather Service said catastrophic damage was happening or will happen soon.

Updates on the damage and recovery efforts in Pensacola are available from our partner station WUWF 88.1 FM. Both the tornado and flash flood risks are expected to diminish across the state by early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Hurricane Sally move farther north and east into Georgia and South Carolina.

Expires at 9:00am on Thursday September 17th, 2020

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