Flash flooding and a few tornadoes remain possible through Wednesday night across portions of the Florida Panhandle and North Florida.

Thunderstorm cells embedded in the outer rain bands of Hurricane #Sally may rotate and produce a tornado, and repeating nature of the cells within the band could lead to flash flooding.

WINDS
30 MPH
PRESSURE
1000 MB
MOVING
NE AT 12 MPH

A Tornado Watch has been issued all areas of the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to Crestview through 6 pm CDT Wednesday, but it could be expanded to areas farther east later in the afternoon or evening.

A Flash Flood Watch continues for the entire Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning, and as of midday Wednesday, nearly every county was also under a Flash Flood Warning with various expiration times in the afternoon hours.

The warning means flooding has been reported or was imminent. As of 12:15 pm CDT, there had been more than 50 reports of flooding, most of which have occurred along the Emerald Coast from Pensacola to Panama City Beach. However, nearly a dozen of the reports were from inland areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.

A Flash Flood Emergency was even issued for the greater Pensacola metro area where the National Weather Service said catastrophic damage was happening or will happen soon.

Updates on the damage and recovery efforts in Pensacola are available from our partner station WUWF 88.1 FM. Both the tornado and flash flood risks are expected to diminish across the state by early Thursday morning, as the remnants of Hurricane Sally move farther north and east into Georgia and South Carolina.

Expires at 9:00am on Thursday September 17th, 2020

Tropical storm force wind gusts, heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding, and a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet are all possible in parts of the Florida Panhandle from Tropical Storm Sally beginning Monday. The flood risk could continue through at least Tuesday evening, as Sally slows to a crawl before making landfall in Louisiana.

Flood risk also continues in Southwest Florida from Sally

The Tropical Storm Watches previously in effect for the Florida Panhandle from Port St. Joe west to the Alabama border have been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch continues for areas farther east to the Ochlockonee River.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all areas of the Florida Panhandle west of a line from Marianna to Apalachee Bay through Tuesday evening. The watch includes Apalachicola, Panama City, Crestview, the Emerald Coast, and Pensacola.

As of 11 am Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located 135 miles west of St. Petersburg and moving west-northwest at 12 mph . Maximum sustained winds were noted by hurricane hunters to be at 60 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 998mb.

WINDS
30 MPH
PRESSURE
1000 MB
MOVING
NE AT 12 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through southeastern Virginia. Along the central Gulf Coast, most widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated well into next week.


There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally moves across the Southeast U.S. through Friday: Central Georgia: Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts, on top of 3 to 6 inches which has already fallen. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Central to upstate South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Western to central North Carolina into southcentral and southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is likely.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through the day today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur early this morning across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas today and tonight.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana through today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward to eastnortheastward motion is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or Friday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama and west-central and central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. Sally will continue to weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by Friday evening.

Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is downthe middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA.This is the last NHC advisory on Sally. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

The primary hazard from Tropical Storm Sally, as it relates to Florida Panhandle, will be flooding. This could occur suddenly, which is called a flash flood, or it might develop over a longer period of time near coastlines and creeks due to persistent rain and higher water levels. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said the storm's slower movement will "exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats" to Florida's Gulf Coast. The area at greatest risk for a multi-day flooding event is along the Emerald Coast from Destin to Pensacola, and locations inland to roughly the I-10 corridor.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph from Tropical Storm Sally's outer rain bands are expected to arrive along the Gulf Coast near Port St. Joe and Panama City early Monday morning. Tropical storm force wind gusts are then expected to spread west along the Emerald Coast from Destin to Navarre by early afternoon, and to Pensacola by early Monday evening. Minor wind damage will be possible from some of the stronger outer rain bands of Tropical Storm Sally, along with an attendant water spout or tornado risk.

Frequent updates on Tropical Storm Sally are available via the Florida Storms mobile app or social media accounts. Meteorologists from the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will also provide updates on Tropical Storm Sally through Florida's network of public radio and television stations.

Expires at 11:00am on Monday September 14th, 2020

More than four inches of rain has already fallen in parts of Southwest Florida since Friday, and several more hours of heavy rain are likely as Tropical Storm Sally slowly pulls away Sunday.

A Flood Watch continues for areas of west-central and southwest Florida through Sunday evening. The watch includes Levy County along the Nature Coast and stretches to Monroe County south of Naples. The cities of Tampa, Lakeland, Sarasota, and Fort Myers are under the watch.

As of 9 am Sunday, radar derived three-day rainfall estimates ranged from over four inches near Naples and Marco Island, to between two and three inches farther north near Fort Myers, Cape Coral and Sarasota.

As of 11 am Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located 135 miles west of St. Petersburg and moving west-northwest at 12 mph . Maximum sustained winds were noted by hurricane hunters to be at 60 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 998mb.

WINDS
30 MPH
PRESSURE
1000 MB
MOVING
NE AT 12 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through southeastern Virginia. Along the central Gulf Coast, most widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated well into next week.


There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally moves across the Southeast U.S. through Friday: Central Georgia: Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts, on top of 3 to 6 inches which has already fallen. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Central to upstate South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Western to central North Carolina into southcentral and southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is likely.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through the day today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur early this morning across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas today and tonight.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana through today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward to eastnortheastward motion is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or Friday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama and west-central and central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. Sally will continue to weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by Friday evening.

Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is downthe middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA.This is the last NHC advisory on Sally. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across portions of southwestern Florida, with isolated amounts as high as 6 inches through Monday. The vast majority of Sally's precipitation field is located to the east and south of the center of low pressure, which will continue to deliver heavy rainfall to western and central parts of the Florida Peninsula.

Farther north and west, Sally's slow forward speed and proximity offshore could produce heavy rainfall across the portions of the Florida Panhandle as well, where a Flash Flood Watch is also in effect. The National Weather Service office in Mobile says rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible near Pensacola through Wednesday.

Expires at 11:00pm on Sunday September 13th, 2020

Tropical storm conditions are possible along Florida’s Emerald Coast and near Pensacola from Tropical Storm Sally within the next 48 hours. Sally is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico Sunday, before making landfall along the central Gulf Coast Monday as a hurricane.

WINDS
30 MPH
PRESSURE
1000 MB
MOVING
NE AT 12 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through southeastern Virginia. Along the central Gulf Coast, most widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated well into next week.


There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally moves across the Southeast U.S. through Friday: Central Georgia: Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts, on top of 3 to 6 inches which has already fallen. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Central to upstate South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is likely. Western to central North Carolina into southcentral and southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is likely.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through the day today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur early this morning across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas today and tonight.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana through today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward to eastnortheastward motion is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late tonight into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or Friday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama and west-central and central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. Sally will continue to weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by Friday evening.

Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is downthe middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA.This is the last NHC advisory on Sally. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

As of 5 pm Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Sally was located 30 miles south-southwest of Naples, Florida and moving west at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were reported to be at 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama-Florida border to the Ochlockonee River. A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch has been issued for areas farther west, including all coastal areas of Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.

Heavy rain is expected to continue falling from the Florida Keys to Fort Myers through Saturday night, where an additional 2 to 4 inches is possible through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions, including wind gusts up to 50 mph, high seas, heavy rain, and coastal flooding are possible from Florida Big Bend to Pensacola late Sunday night or Monday.

The average track error of a tropical system at 96 hours - which is when it could make landfall - is about 150 miles. The average forecast intensity error at the same time is a wind speed of 15 mph. For this reason, residents of the Florida Panhandle inside or near the watch area are encouraged to stay vigilant and be prepared should the forecast change.

Expires at 11:00am on Sunday September 13th, 2020

A tropical wave producing thunderstorms over the Bahamas has strengthened into Tropical Depression Nineteen (TD 19).

As of 5 pm Friday, the National Hurricane Center said that the system had become better organized, was producing maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and was moving to the west-northwest at 8 miles per hour.

WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 6 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to atropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly overthe western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see directwind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, intereststhroughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress ofthis system and future updates to the forecast.


Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression.


SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression TwentyTwo was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 94.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northnortheast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday that will likely continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


The depression is still not very well organized. It's surface wind circulation appears to be elongated from southwest to northeast and deep convection is mostly limited to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. Overnight ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate both support an intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning and should provide more information about the structure of the cyclone.

Confidence in the details of the track forecast remain low at this time. Due to the slow forward speed of the cyclone expected into next week, small fluctuations in the depression's heading or speed could have very large implications on any hazards experienced along the Mexico or Texas coasts. It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5 when the average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200 miles, respectively. My long-term motion estimate is 025/5 kt, but in reality the depression's movement has been unsteady since it formed yesterday. There is still good general agreement that the system will move slowly north-northeastward for about 36 h, and then turn westward as a ridge builds over the southeast United States. The cyclone will then likely inch closer to the northern Mexico or southern Texas coasts. The details of this evolution vary greatly from model to model and the track guidance spread is higher than usual. The most certain aspect of the forecast is that the depression will not be moving anywhere very quickly well into next week.

Although the depression is located within an environment supportive of intensification, only slow strengthening is likely until it gets better organized. Beyond 72 h, the cyclone will begin to interact with a cold front and the drier, more stable air behind it. This should at the very least end any intensification and could lead to weakening. Interaction with land could also cause the system to weaken. The latest statistical intensity guidance is less aggressive, but those models still show the system becoming a hurricane within a couple of days, while the dynamical hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) do not strengthen it quite that much. For now the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged and is at the top end of the guidance envelope.

The system is expected to continue on a northwestward track, and should enter the Gulf of Mexico early on Saturday, where it could intensify. Regardless of when this occurs, periods of heavy rain are expected to impact parts of South Florida on Saturday, and the parts of Florida's Gulf Coast on Sunday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for parts of Southeast Florida from Jupiter Inlet along the Treasure Coast to just north of Ocean Reef in the Northern Keys. A Flood Watch is in effect from Levy County along the Nature Coast to southern Collier County in Southwest Florida.

Rainfall amounts through Sunday are likely to range from 2 to 4 inches along and west of I-75 from Tampa to Naples, with locally higher amounts possible in some areas. Generally, 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected over the three-day period across the western half of the peninsula and along coastal sections of the Florida Panhandle. Lesser amounts of rain are expected along Florida's Atlantic Coast, except for portions of South Florida where amounts up to 2 inches will be possible.

NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
NHC: High chance of tropical development in next five days.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are multiple areas being monitored for possible future development in the next five days. However, none of them are an immediate threat to the Sunshine State. Tropical storms Paulette and Rene also continue to spin across the central Atlantic, but are not likely to affect any land areas of North America.

The next tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be named “Sally”. The current record for earliest “S” named storm belongs to Stan which formed on October 2, 2005. There have already been an impressive fourteen records for earliest named storms this year in the tropical Atlantic basin.

Expires at 9:00pm on Saturday September 12th, 2020

A tropical storm or hurricane is not expected to threaten Florida this weekend. However, an abundance of tropical moisture from a nearby tropical wave could lead to repeating downpours and possible flooding in portions of the state.

The National Weather Service issued a Flood Watch Thursday afternoon for all counties along Florida's Gulf Coast from Tampa to Fort Myers, where meteorologists say current forecast data suggests enough rain may fall on already saturated ground to cause flooding. A tropical wave is expected to traverse the state Saturday, further enhancing some of the rainfall, thus the watch is in effect through Sunday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Sunday are likely to range from 2 to 4 inches along and west of I-75 from Tampa to Naples, with locally higher amounts possible in some areas. Generally, 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected over the three-day period across the western half of the peninsula and along coastal sections of the Florida Panhandle. Lesser amounts of rain are expected along Florida's Atlantic Coast, except for portions of South Florida where amounts up to 2 inches will be possible.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are multiple areas being monitored for possible future development in the next five days. However, none of them are an immediate threat to the Sunshine State. Tropical storms Paulette and Rene also continue to spin across the central Atlantic, but are not likely to affect any land areas of North America.

NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
NHC: High chance of tropical development in next five days.

The next tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be named “Sally”. The current record for earliest “S” named storm belongs to Stan which formed on October 2, 2005. There have already been an impressive fourteen records for earliest named storms this year in the tropical Atlantic basin.

Expires at 6:00pm on Saturday September 12th, 2020

The traditionally busier weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season are upon us, and two new tropical storms may develop this week.

The first area of interest, referred to as Invest 97 for modeling purposes, was noted to be producing an increasing number of showers and thunderstorms about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands early Monday. The system was moving swiftly to the west at 20 mph, and its fast forward speed is likely to "limit significant development" over the next two days, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Thereafter, conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and the NHC has given Invest 97 a "medium chance" of developing into a tropical depression or storm by the end of this week.

Another tropical disturbance located over the far eastern Atlantic, well southeast of the Cabo Verde islands, also has a "medium chance" of developing in the next five days. Showers associated with it were observed to be disorganized Monday, but environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for development by midweek as it moves across the central Atlantic. Long range forecast data suggests this might be the first long-tracked tropical cyclone of the season, potentially bringing it close to the Lesser Antilles in about five or six days.

NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
NHC: High chance of tropical development in next five days.

The next two names on the already historic 2020 hurricane season will be Laura and Marco. Eight records for earliest named storms have already been broken this year, which include Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine and Kyle. The earliest "L" storm on record was Luis, which formed on Aug. 29, 1995. Maria (2005) and Lee (2011) are are the earliest "M" storms on record, both developing on Sept. 2.

Expires at 8:00am on Tuesday August 18th, 2020

Hurricane Isaías is now expected to move directly toward Florida's East Coast Saturday night, producing hurricane force winds and a life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Treasure and Space Coasts.

As of 5 PM, the National Hurricane Center has shifted the track of Isaías a bit farther west, which includes a possible landfall near West Palm Beach.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

Aside from the slight fluctuation change in official forecast track, potential hazards to Florida from Isaías remain unchanged. Interests toward interior and eastern parts of the peninsula should anticipate strong winds and periods of heavy rain this weekend. Localized flash flooding and storm surge inundation will be possible, especially directly along the coast. Beach erosion, rough surf, and life threatening rip currents are highly likely.

Expires at 5:00pm on Saturday August 1st, 2020

While the season's first hurricane makes landfall in South Texas this weekend, a new tropical wave in the Central Atlantic could be one Floridians need to watch.

NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
NHC: High chance of tropical development in next five days.

The area of interest, referred to by meteorologists as Invest 92, was located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands Saturday evening. In his 8 pm update, National Hurricane Center Branch Chief Michael Brennan said conditions appear "conducive for development" in the coming days and a tropical depression or storm was "likely to form" early next week.

Long range forecast data has begun to suggest Invest 92 has the potential to intensify into a formidable tropical storm or hurricane as it moves westward across the Tropical Atlantic later in the week. Early indications are pointing to a potential threat from Invest 92 to the Lesser Antilles and/or northern Caribbean in about 5 to 7 days.

While it is far too soon to make a credible prediction on where Invest 92 might track, much less how strong it may become, all residents in hurricane prone areas from the Caribbean to the Southeast U.S. are encouraged to stay informed on the progress of this potential storm.

Elsewhere in an unusually busy Atlantic Tropical Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Hanna made landfall in South Texas Saturday as a category 1 storm with winds up to 90 mph. Hanna was the season's first hurricane and the earliest "H" storm to form in the calendar year on record.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

The first hurricane of the year normally occurs on or around August 10, according to records collected by the National Hurricane Center. The average formation date of the eighth tropical storm of the year is Sept. 24.

In the eastern Caribbean Saturday, Tropical Storm Gonzalo was no match for strong upper-level winds and degenerated into a tropical wave. However, gusty winds and heavy rain squalls were still expected to affect the southern islands of the Windward Island chain and northern sections of Venezuela through Sunday.

Expires at 8:00pm on Sunday July 26th, 2020

Rain chances will be unusually low and nights surprisingly comfortable across the northern half of Florida this week. 

The circulation behind an area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina has allowed a much drier, and consequently more comfortable air mass to spread as far south as Central Florida. As a result, nearly all of Monday’s showers and thunderstorms were concentrated in South Florida and near the Florida Keys. And this will be a trend that lasts through at least midweek.

Dry northwesterly winds have caused dew points, which are a measure of atmospheric moisture, to fall into the 60s as far south as Tampa and Orlando. Normally they are in the lower and middle 70s for weeks on end this time of year, which makes the already warm summer afternoons feel even hotter. That won’t be the case over the next few days near and north of the I-4 corridor. 

The drop in humidity will be most noticeable in the mornings and evenings, as temperatures are allowed to fall faster and to lower levels because of the drier air. Overnight lows across inland areas of the Florida Panhandle and much of North Florida will dip well into the 60s through at least Wednesday morning.  Daytime highs will also be a tad cooler as well, rising to the middle and upper 80s in most spots. Both the projected highs and lows will be running roughly 2 to 5 degrees below normal for mid-June.

Rain chances will be well below normal across most of the state this week, with South Florida being an exception where deep tropical moisture remains in place. The showers and thunderstorms will form primarily along sea breeze boundaries over the next few days and could produce heavy rainfall, which could cause localized flooding. A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms might also develop each afternoon farther up the I-95 corridor due to the Atlantic sea breeze, but this activity will remain isolated. 

Rain chances will gradually be on the rise across Central and South Florida by Thursday and Friday, thanks to a tropical wave moving north from the Caribbean. However, most areas of North Florida and the Florida Panhandle are likely to stay drier than normal through at least the start of the weekend. 

Expires at 10:00pm on Tuesday June 16th, 2020

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