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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa

UPDATED
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021
LOCATION
90 MI ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
999 MB
MOVING
NE AT 35 MPH

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN

DISCONTINUED

KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. php Key Messages1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S. coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None.


Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The post tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Surface observations during the past several hours indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 45 kt.

Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed from the cyclone's center.

Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

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