CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card Sound Bridge
- East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge
- Lake Okeechobee
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque
- Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy rains across western Cuba early this morning. Heavy rainfall will also affect the northwestern Bahamas, the Keys, South Florida, and Central Florida today. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. This rain may cause lifethreatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba through early this morning, in Florida today, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba early this morning.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...13 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...12 ft Charlotte Harbor...12 ft Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...12 ft Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...12 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 83.6 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula later today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late today and Sunday, and near or north of Bermuda by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in status or strength is expected before the disturbance moves across Florida, but the system is expected to develop a welldefined center and strengthen slightly late this weekend and early next week over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).