CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will diminish across South Florida and the Keys through this evening. Heavy rain will continue across the northwestern Bahamas tonight before diminishing by early Sunday. Heavy rain may begin to impact Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

The following storm totals are expected:

South Florida: 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches. Urban flooding is expected to continue.

Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Bermuda: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours. Wind gusts to tropicalstorm force are possible in squalls over portions of the east coast of the central and southern Florida Peninsula for the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Monday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1 3 ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the eastnortheast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move farther away from the east coast of Florida and over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and move near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm tonight or Sunday, and some strengthening is possible through Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. A weather station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported a wind gust of 36 mph (57 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).