1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle.

WIND: Gusty winds are expected to continue during the next few hours over portions of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds could also occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast isolated significant river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi have begun to rise and are forecast to crest mid-week. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible across the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal are still affecting portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast, and are likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to gradually subside throughout the day. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 91.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move through northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast through Tuesday. However, Cristobal is expected to strengthen some as it becomes an extratropical low Tuesday night and Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Cristobal continues to move further inland. Surface observations along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is located over northeastern Louisiana. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The depression is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the north and east of the center.

The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west. This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants, across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the next few days.

Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal continues to track inland. However, slight re-intensification as an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle of the week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center.