1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

WHAT'S NEW:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for areas outside the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
- Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
- East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
- Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
- East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL...2-4 ft Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Farther north across the mid-Mississippi Valley, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding, and widespread flooding on smaller streams is possible across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches. Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 89.7 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

The center of the tropical cyclone has moved into the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer and surface synoptic data indicated that the system had already re-strengthened into a tropical storm. The system has been exhibiting fairly well-defined convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, the central convection is minimal at this time and upper-level outflow is being restricted over the southwestern quadrant due to a trough over the Bay of Campeche. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with the earlier observations. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal's strength. Although the cyclone will be traversing fairly warm waters during the next couple of days, dry mid-level air and some southwesterly shear is expected to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous ones and close to the model consensus.

Cristobal has moved a little faster over the past several hours, and the current motion is estimated to be northward at 11 kt. For the next couple of days, the cyclone should continue to move generally northward through a weakness between subtropical high pressure areas. A bend toward the north-northwest is forecast just after landfall on the northern Gulf Coast due to the slight building of a ridge to the northeast of Cristobal.

The size of the wind field and timing of the new track forecast require the issuance of storm surge and tropical storm warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast at this time.