1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within the warning area along the North Carolina coast through Sunday.

2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina
- Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected within the warning area in North Carolina later this evening through early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across coastal portions of North Carolina and northern South Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, is possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the North Carolina coast through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).

Colin has lost organization this afternoon. Visible satellite and Doppler radar images along with surface observations indicate that the circulation has become elongated from north-northeast to south-southwest, and it is starting to resemble a trough. In addition, the convective pattern remains ragged with deep convection confined to the east and southeast of the center. The highest wind reports are in the Wilmington, North Carolina area, where sustained winds have been in the 20-25 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but this could be generous. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information on Colin's intensity tonight.

The ongoing northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is expected to continue and an approaching cold front is likely to cause the system to become even more elongated. Based on these factors, Colin is expected to dissipate in a day or two, if not sooner. The strongest winds will likely occur along and off the North Carolina coast through Sunday.

The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take the center of Colin along or just offshore of the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.