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STORMS
Tropical Storm Dolly
LOCATED
370 MI SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1002 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 , 2020
DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 100 PM AST (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 61.7 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The low should then dissipate by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

At 100 PM AST (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 61.7 West. Dolly is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two as Dolly moves over colder waters, and the system is expected to become post-tropical on Wednesday. The low should then dissipate by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that the depression's circulation has become better defined since yesterday, and the center is exposed just to the north of a band of convection mainly located within the southern semicircle. This convection is aligned along the Gulf Stream current, where instability is greatest, and the system appears a little more tropical than yesterday. However, the depression is still collocated with an upper-level low, and it will therefore retain the subtropical designation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a ST1.5/25-30 kt classification from TAFB. A partial 1323 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed winds near 30 kt to the southeast of the center, and we'll continue to monitor additional scatterometer data to see if there are winds any higher than that.

The initial motion is still 11 kt, but the heading has turned east-northeastward at 65 degrees. The depression is forecast to turn back toward the northeast by this evening and begin accelerating on Wednesday within the prevailing mid-latitude flow. This track will take the system over increasingly colder water, placing it over sea surface temperatures less than 20 degrees Celsius by early Wednesday. Those ocean temperatures will make it difficult to support deep convection, and the updated NHC forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours. Dissipation has been moved to 48 hours, although global model fields indicate that the system could open up into a trough by 36 hours before it moves past Newfoundland.

The Ocean Prediction Center has provided 12-ft sea radii in the southern semicircle based on recent AltiKa and Jason-3 altimeter data.

Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that the depression's circulation has become better defined since yesterday, and the center is exposed just to the north of a band of convection mainly located within the southern semicircle. This convection is aligned along the Gulf Stream current, where instability is greatest, and the system appears a little more tropical than yesterday. However, the depression is still collocated with an upper-level low, and it will therefore retain the subtropical designation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a ST1.5/25-30 kt classification from TAFB. A partial 1323 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed winds near 30 kt to the southeast of the center, and we'll continue to monitor additional scatterometer data to see if there are winds any higher than that.

The initial motion is still 11 kt, but the heading has turned east-northeastward at 65 degrees. The depression is forecast to turn back toward the northeast by this evening and begin accelerating on Wednesday within the prevailing mid-latitude flow. This track will take the system over increasingly colder water, placing it over sea surface temperatures less than 20 degrees Celsius by early Wednesday. Those ocean temperatures will make it difficult to support deep convection, and the updated NHC forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours. Dissipation has been moved to 48 hours, although global model fields indicate that the system could open up into a trough by 36 hours before it moves past Newfoundland.

The Ocean Prediction Center has provided 12-ft sea radii in the southern semicircle based on recent AltiKa and Jason-3 altimeter data.

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