Tropical Storm Danny Advisory 2

1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolinaand Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeastAlabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of thesouthern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions ofthe South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where aTropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affectportions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolinaand Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeastAlabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of thesouthern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions ofthe South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where aTropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affectportions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Edisto Beach to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area very soon making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Danny could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible this evening along the South Carolina coast.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Danny can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area very soon making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Danny could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina. This region has been dry, limiting potential widespread flooding impacts, however, local flooding impacts, especially in urban areas along the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts, cannot be ruled out at this time. Farther inland, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina, the Piedmont of Georgia, and into northeastern Alabama. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Royal Sound, SC to South Santee River, SC...1 to 3 ft Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible this evening along the South Carolina coast.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 80.1 West. Danny is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, Danny will make landfall along the southern coast of South Carolina early this evening, and move into eastcentral Georgia late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler radars and reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is expected until landfall occurs in a few hours. Rapid weakening is forecast after Danny moves inland. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on reports from An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt.The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX.

No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt.The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX.

No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

AL042021 Tropical Storm Danny