1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States from Sunday through much of next week.

WHAT'S NEW:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

Additional watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should move be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

Dorian's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. The eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The latest information from the Air Force plane before it departed Dorian supports keeping an initial intensity of 130 kt. Dorian is forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Most likely, however, the hurricane will experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the hurricane begins to gain latitude and encounters increasing shear, gradual weakening is anticipated, but Dorian will remain a dangerous hurricane through 5 days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the weak flow to the south of the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. In about a day or two, most of the global models shift the high eastward and deepen a trough over the eastern United States. Consequently, the steering currents should collapse and Dorian is anticipated to drift toward the northwest and north-northwest while is moving over the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida. After that time, the hurricane should begin to move a little faster northward as the trough over the eastern U.S deepens and should then steer the hurricane toward the northeast by the end of the forecast period.

The guidance has not changed significantly since the earlier run, so it has not been necessary to adjust the NHC forecast in this advisory. The uncertainty in the track is high while the hurricane is moving slowly across the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida. Any deviation of Dorian's core to the left would result in an increase in the winds along the east coast of Florida.

Given that the area of tropical storm force winds could expand, and taking into account the uncertainty in the track forecast, a tropical storm watch was issued for the east of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.