FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Dorian
LOCATED
115 MI E OF WEST PALM BEACH
WINDS
165 MPH
PRESSURE
916 MB
MOVING
W AT 1 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 , 2019
CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND,
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States into Friday.

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States into Friday.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
- Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
- Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
- Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
- Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.

WIND: [TOP] Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The initial intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This lowering of intensity is consistent with the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days, Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will likely result in weakening. However it is anticipated that the system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several days. The official intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model consensus.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The initial intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This lowering of intensity is consistent with the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days, Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will likely result in weakening. However it is anticipated that the system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several days. The official intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model consensus.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.

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