1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast beginning Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of flash flooding from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward from Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
- North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
- North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
- Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm Warning area in north Florida and Georgia by early Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday, with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from Sebastian, Florida to the Georgia, South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches. Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida during the next several hours. This risk will shift to along the immediate coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 79.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through early Wednesday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).

Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous. The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.

Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.