1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern North Carolina.

WHAT'S NEW:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet, FL has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
- North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
- North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida today. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast. Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate Georgia coast and the coastal Carolinas today into Thursday.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become broad and less well-defined over the past several hours. The hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection that are causing winds of at least tropical storm force along portions of the northeast coast of Florida. Although the central pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft. Dorian will be traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some increase in vertical shear after 24 hours. The official intensity forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then shows a very slow weakening thereafter. This is close to the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. The system is expected to maintain close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or 330/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast reasoning. Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track remains close to the corrected multi-model consensus.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane.