1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay continues to increase. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast, the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. The Storm Surge Warning has been been discontinued from Port Canaveral, Florida southward. The Hurricane Warning for the northeastern coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County line to Ponte Vedra Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Florida has been discontinued south of the Volusia/Brevard County line.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the progress of the hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by late tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 79.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia coast, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data. However, just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity, with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure near 964 mb. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula, while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.

The initial motion is now 335/8. Dorian is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has twice reported 110-kt flight-level winds in the eastern eyewall, and the central pressure has fallen to 961 mb. Based on these data and that of eyewall dropsondes, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are 50-60 n mi offshore of northeastern coast of Florida, while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are affecting portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

The initial motion is now 345/8. Dorian is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 12-36 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina in about 24 h and near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick northeastward motion continuing through 120 h. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the next 36 h or so. None of the guidance shows significant strengthening during this time, and the official forecast is similar to, but slightly stronger than, the previous forecast. However, based on current trends it is possible that Dorian could briefly regain major hurricane strength during the next 12-24 h. The hurricane is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United States coast during the 24-48 h period, followed by a weakening trend due to increasing shear and dry air entrainment. Extratropical transition is now expected to begin between 48-72 h and be complete just after 72 h, with Dorian forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low as it moves towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- threatening storm surges from this hurricane.