1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast, the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Poquoson, Virginia, including Hampton Roads.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague, Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Flagler/Volusia County line FL to Poquoson VA
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
- Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Flagler/Volusia County FL line to Savannah River
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the progress of the hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions beginning by late tonight and Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions along the northeastern Florida coast should subside tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north- northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41008 near the Georgia coast recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has twice reported 110-kt flight-level winds in the eastern eyewall, and the central pressure has fallen to 961 mb. Based on these data and that of eyewall dropsondes, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are 50-60 n mi offshore of northeastern coast of Florida, while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are affecting portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

The initial motion is now 345/8. Dorian is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 12-36 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina in about 24 h and near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick northeastward motion continuing through 120 h. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the next 36 h or so. None of the guidance shows significant strengthening during this time, and the official forecast is similar to, but slightly stronger than, the previous forecast. However, based on current trends it is possible that Dorian could briefly regain major hurricane strength during the next 12-24 h. The hurricane is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United States coast during the 24-48 h period, followed by a weakening trend due to increasing shear and dry air entrainment. Extratropical transition is now expected to begin between 48-72 h and be complete just after 72 h, with Dorian forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low as it moves towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life- threatening storm surges from this hurricane.