1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Savannah River to Poquoson VA
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
- Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
- Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North Carolina within the next couple of hours, with hurricane conditions beginning later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in diameter on satellite and radar images. Earlier data from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity close to 100 kt at this time. Dorian should soon begin to experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at least slow weakening during the next couple of days. The official forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72 hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on the high side of the guidance suite. By 72 hours, the global models show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly asymmetric cloud pattern. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the system becoming extratropical by that time.

Dorian's initial motion is about 010/6 kt. The hurricane is currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the north. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus. The forecast track and wind radii now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme southeastern New England.

The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.