1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia today into tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, and also extended northward in the Chesapeake Bay to Drum Point, including the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Edisto Beach SC to Poquoson VA
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
- Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Altamaha Sound GA to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
- Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Awendaw SC to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Edisto Beach SC to Awendaw SC...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). Charleston International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). NOAA buoy 41004, currently located inside the eye, has reported a minimum pressure of 959.7 mb (28.34 inches).

The latest NOAA Doppler radar data, along with Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter reports, indicate that Dorian has an well- defined eye with a diameter of about 40 n mi, with the northwestern edge of the eyewall not far from the South Carolina coast. The Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased some since 12 h ago, accompanied by a rise in the central pressure. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt. The central pressure of 958 mb is based partly on data from NOAA buoy 41004, which is currently inside the eye.

Dorian has nudged eastward during the past several hours and the initial motion is now 020/7. The hurricane is now moving into the mid-latitude westerlies, and during the next several hours it is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed. This should bring the eye near or over the coasts of eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 72 h. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous forecast.

Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves along the South and North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin around 48 h and be complete by 72 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After 72 h, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.