1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, and for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Warning from Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Little River Inlet.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Little River Inlet to Poquoson VA
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
- Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Edisto Beach SC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach SC
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
- Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are now occuring along portions of the South Carolina coast northeast of Charleston and should continue for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting other portions of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin during the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Little River Inlet to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of eastern South Carolina for the next several hours, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). NOAA buoy 41004 to the southwest of the eye recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (118 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with 700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt.

The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the initial motion is now 035/9. The mid-latitude westerlies should steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed, with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina coast during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h. As was the case in the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous one.

Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After transition is complete, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a hurricane-force extratropical low.