1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for all of Nova Scotia, a Tropical Storm Watch for Prince Edward Island and for the Magdalen Islands, and for New Brunswick from Fundy National Park to Shediac. Also a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbour. The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Cape Fear to Poquoson VA
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
- Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
- Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Prince Edward Island
- Magdalen Islands
- Fundy National Park to Shediac.
- Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are spreading along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday Night:

South Carolina...Additional amounts up to a half inch, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.

Eastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals of 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A Weatherflow station located Federal Point, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 75 mph (121 km/h). The Johnny Mercer Pier NOAA-NOS station located at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 958 mb (28.29 inches) based on a recent report of 958.9 mb (28.32 inches) from Frying Pan Shoals buoy located in Dorian's eye.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is now estimated to be 85 kt.

Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is anticipated. As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72 hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds while moving near or over Nova Scotia.

The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds.