1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet. The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Surf City NC to Poquoson VA
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
- Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
- Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
- Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
- Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Prince Edward Island
- Magdalen Islands
- Fundy National Park to Shediac.
- Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday.

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches. Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches. Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches. New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout. Based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. This estimate is a compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values. The minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface observations and aircraft fixes. There have been several reports in eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in the northern eyewall.

Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system and accelerates the steering flow. This track forecast takes the hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about 36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days. As the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand significantly. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various consensus aids.