1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several hours.

2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Newfoundland from Boat Harbour to Triton. All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued south of the North Carolina/Virginia Border. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of the North Carolina/Virginia border.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Salter Path NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
- Prince Edward Island
- Magdalen Islands
- Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
- Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
- Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
- East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
- Prince Edward Island
- Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Fundy National Park to Shediac
- Parson's Pond to Triton
- Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the MidAtlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions will persist for a few more hours in the warning area over the Mid-Atlantic states. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: [TOP] Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 72.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic.

There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has completed extratropical transition by that time.