1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola early Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to increase.

4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

WHAT'S NEW:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Vieques and Culebra
- U.S. Virgin Islands
- British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

SURF: [TOP] Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center. An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph (178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Dorian this evening. Data from the plane indicate that the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated, and based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds the intensity is set at 45 kt. Fixes from the aircraft show that the center of the cyclone moved just south of the southern coast of Barbados within the last couple of hours, and tropical-storm-force winds were reported over that island. There is fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Although some dry mid-level air is likely to continue to affect Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong. Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance and is subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly from days 3 to 5.

Dorian continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, while being steered by the flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. In a day or two, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. The ridge is expected to build somewhat later in the forecast period, which should cause Dorian to turn slightly to the left. The ECMWF model is near the northern side of the guidance suite and the UKMET is near the southern side. The GFS model continues to practically dissipate the system so it was unable to generate a forecast track. The official track forecast was shifted a bit to the north, but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It is advisable that one not focus on small changes in the forecast track due to uncertainties.