1. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

WHAT'S NEW:

None

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SPECIAL UPDATE 8:30 PM ET

....DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has
strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with
maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT
(0300 UTC).

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 950 mb (28.05 inches).

High resolution satellite images show that Dorian's cloud pattern has become much better organized, with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection and fair upper-level outflow. Satellite intensity estimates, both objectivs from CIMMS and subjective from TAFB and SAB, are in good agreement with the 100-kt winds recently measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. This is the intensity assigned to Dorian in this advisory.

Since the upper-level environment is already becoming more favorable for intensification and Dorian will be over high sea surface temperatures, the NHC forecast calls for additional intensification. Dorian is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the northwestern Bahamas and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula in about 2 to 4 days.

The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge is forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the left or right depending on future model trends.

Based on the new forecast, a hurricane warning has been issued for poertions of the northwest Bahamas. However, given the slower forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for the Florida coast at this time.