1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.
3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola early Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to increase.
4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.
3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola early Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to increase.
4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
WHAT'S NEW:
None.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
- Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Andros Island
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
- Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
WHAT'S NEW:
None.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
- Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Andros Island
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
- Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
- Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
WIND: [TOP] Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight.
STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft
The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week:
Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
WIND: [TOP] Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight.
STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft
The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week:
Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur during the next couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches).
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur during the next couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches).
An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Dorian this evening. Data from the plane indicate that the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated, and based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds the intensity is set at 45 kt. Fixes from the aircraft show that the center of the cyclone moved just south of the southern coast of Barbados within the last couple of hours, and tropical-storm-force winds were reported over that island. There is fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Although some dry mid-level air is likely to continue to affect Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong. Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance and is subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly from days 3 to 5.
Dorian continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, while being steered by the flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. In a day or two, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. The ridge is expected to build somewhat later in the forecast period, which should cause Dorian to turn slightly to the left. The ECMWF model is near the northern side of the guidance suite and the UKMET is near the southern side. The GFS model continues to practically dissipate the system so it was unable to generate a forecast track. The official track forecast was shifted a bit to the north, but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It is advisable that one not focus on small changes in the forecast track due to uncertainties.
An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Dorian this evening. Data from the plane indicate that the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated, and based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds the intensity is set at 45 kt. Fixes from the aircraft show that the center of the cyclone moved just south of the southern coast of Barbados within the last couple of hours, and tropical-storm-force winds were reported over that island. There is fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Although some dry mid-level air is likely to continue to affect Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong. Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance and is subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly from days 3 to 5.
Dorian continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, while being steered by the flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. In a day or two, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. The ridge is expected to build somewhat later in the forecast period, which should cause Dorian to turn slightly to the left. The ECMWF model is near the northern side of the guidance suite and the UKMET is near the southern side. The GFS model continues to practically dissipate the system so it was unable to generate a forecast track. The official track forecast was shifted a bit to the north, but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It is advisable that one not focus on small changes in the forecast track due to uncertainties.
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