1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through Friday.

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

WHAT'S NEW:

None.

SUMMARY OF ALERTS:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Lantana FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
- Altamaha Sound GA to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
- Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
- North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
- Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the Southeast and MidAtlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required tonight and Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: [TOP] Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: [TOP] A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 30 inches. Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 6 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: [TOP] Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: [TOP] Isolated tornadoes are possible through Tuesday along the eastern coast of Florida.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian remains nearly stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow west-northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. This intensity estimate is based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Sustained winds of 57 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island.

The minimum central pressure of 942 mb (27.82 inches) is based on data provided by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters.

Dorian continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island this evening. The hurricane still has an impressive presentation in satellite and radar images, however, there have been occasional dry slots observed in the western part of the eyewall. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided excellent data in Dorian this evening, and based primarily on the flight-level wind data from the aircraft, the initial intensity of Dorian is set to 115 kt. The westernmost outer rain bands are reaching the east coast of south Florida and producing gusty winds.

The major hurricane has been stationary much of the day. The reason the cyclone has moved very little is because it is caught in weak steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and northwest and a trough to its north. This weak flow should result in a very slow and likely erratic northwest drift through at least early Tuesday. After that time, the models are in general agreement that the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify. This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to move a little faster to the north on Wednesday and to the northeast on Thursday and Friday. The NHC track forecast remains consistent and continues to show the core of Dorian offshore, but dangerously close to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next 3 days or so. This track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and it is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, Dorian is likely to produce strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge along a portion of the U.S. east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

The intensity models are in agreement that Dorian should slowly lose strength during the next several days due to a gradual increase in wind shear and perhaps drier air. Regardless of the details of the intensity forecast, the bottom line is that Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks very near the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning while moving little. The eyewall has become a little less defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening. However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM guidance.

Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian should respond to these changes by beginning to move north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model consensus.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or over the coastline.