1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.
2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
inches.
3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.
1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.
2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
inches.
3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.
WHAT'S NEW:
The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominica
- Martinique
- Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches or warnings could be issued on Monday for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
WHAT'S NEW:
The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominica
- Martinique
- Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches or warnings could be issued on Monday for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 55.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 55.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon, with deep convection oscillating up and down. There are few banding features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for this storm is a challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola. Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN, but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty associated with this forecast.
The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12. Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge. The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus, HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track.
Key Messages:
Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon, with deep convection oscillating up and down. There are few banding features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for this storm is a challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola. Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN, but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty associated with this forecast.
The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12. Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge. The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus, HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track.
Key Messages:
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