1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information.
2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as
6 inches.
3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today.
1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to advice from local government officials and products from their local meteorological service for additional information.
2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as
6 inches.
3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today.
WHAT'S NEW:
None.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominica
- Martinique
- Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as early as later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
WHAT'S NEW:
None.
SUMMARY OF ALERTS:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Barbados
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Dominica
- Martinique
- Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as early as later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in Barbados and the Windward Islands.
WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Tuesday.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: [TOP] Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in Barbados and the Windward Islands.
WIND: [TOP] Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Tuesday.
SURF: [TOP] Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however, suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center.
During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like Dorian are often challenging to predict.
Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.
Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however, suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center.
During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like Dorian are often challenging to predict.
Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.
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