1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Chokoloskee, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key
- West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
- Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina
- Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late Wednesday morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops around the ragged eye feature later tonight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track forecast.

Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN.