FLORIDA
STORMS
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five
LOCATED
1195 MI E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1008 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 21 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- St. Lucia
- Barbados
- Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
- St. Lucia
- Barbados
- Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropicalstorm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropicalstorm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the west northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the west northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet have a well-defined center.

The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25 kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to the level of uncertainty.

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet have a well-defined center.

The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25 kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to the level of uncertainty.

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