1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
- Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
- South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
- Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, CinemaScope, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the west northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours, although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt.

The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies near the various consensus models.

Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst.

Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4.