FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Elsa
LOCATED
50 MI N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
1009 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica today where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.

3. Tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts are expected beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and are possible along the coast of southwestern Florida beginning Monday night. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect in those areas.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba.

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica today where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.

3. Tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts are expected beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and are possible along the coast of southwestern Florida beginning Monday night. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect in those areas.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with Cuba.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
- Jamaica
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
- The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Artemisa. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
- Jamaica
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
- The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning. Flight-level and SFMR surface observations from the aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 50 kt and the estimated central pressure, about 1009 mb, is rather high for a system of this intensity. Also, tail Doppler radar data from the aircraft show an eastward tilt of the center with height. Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C.

Elsa's forward speed has slowed a little more, and the current motion is around 290/11 kt. There hasn't been much change to the track forecast or reasoning since the previous advisory. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous official forecast, and close to the model consensus. The latest GFS and HWRF solutions are to the west of this forecast.

Elsa should remain in a low-shear environment through Monday, and some strengthening is likely before the storm reaches Cuba, assuming the circulation becomes better aligned vertically. The storm should weaken somewhat due to its passage over Cuba. After the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, only slight restrengthening is forecast due to moderate southwesterly shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the numerical intensity guidance suite.

A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa this morning. Flight-level and SFMR surface observations from the aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 50 kt and the estimated central pressure, about 1009 mb, is rather high for a system of this intensity. Also, tail Doppler radar data from the aircraft show an eastward tilt of the center with height. Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C.

Elsa's forward speed has slowed a little more, and the current motion is around 290/11 kt. There hasn't been much change to the track forecast or reasoning since the previous advisory. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should move around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous official forecast, and close to the model consensus. The latest GFS and HWRF solutions are to the west of this forecast.

Elsa should remain in a low-shear environment through Monday, and some strengthening is likely before the storm reaches Cuba, assuming the circulation becomes better aligned vertically. The storm should weaken somewhat due to its passage over Cuba. After the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, only slight restrengthening is forecast due to moderate southwesterly shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the numerical intensity guidance suite.

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