1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba.

The Government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba through Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands through Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 78.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach southcentral Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt. Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening. Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow by the land masses surrounding the cyclone.

The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the system should accelerate northward to northeastward over the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions.

Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance.