1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
- The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
- The Cuban province of Artemisa
- The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after the first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected through this morning. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia today through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida this afternoon into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 79.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and head toward the Florida Straits tonight, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX.

Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models.